A survey released this Monday (June 29, 2026) shows that the president (PT) and the senator (PL) are technically tied in a possible 2nd round dispute, considering the margin of error of 2 percentage points. In the tested scenario, the PT member registers 47% of voting intentions, while the congressman appears with 44%.
The research also simulated 2nd round disputes between Lula and (Novo), (PSD) and Renan Santos (Missão).
Nexus asked: “Thinking about a possible 2nd round between some candidates, who would you vote for for President of the Republic if you had to choose between:”. Here is how the interviewees responded:
The survey interviewed 2,009 people from June 26 to 28, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level of the survey is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-08521/2026. The study cost R$164,888.89. It was paid by Banco BTG Pactual SA Here is (PDF – 2.3 MB).
The interviews were carried out after the release of the Federal Police about Banco Master against (PT-BA), which criticized Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
1ST ROUND SCENARIOS
The research also made 2 1st round scenarios. Lula scores 42% in both. Flávio goes from 34% to 35%.
REJECTION
The federal deputy (PSDB) is the most rejected by voters: 60% said they would not vote for him at all. 51% gave the same answer in relation to Flávio Bolsonaro and 49% about Lula.
SEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Poder360 offers to do Drive o the oldest and most complete on the internet in Brazil. It brings together thousands of voting intention surveys from all companies since the year 2000. In election years, only studies that are registered with the Electoral Court and have a known complete methodology are published. Do you have any research to share? Email the full text to Poder360: redacao@poder360.com.br.
If you are a subscriber, click to access the Research Aggregator and search for the data you want for disputes from 2026 or all previous years. Read how to sign Drive to access the Search Aggregator and other products from Poder360.
