O Economic Uncertainty Indicator and FGV (Getulio Vargas Foundation) rose 0.4 points in June, to 111.3 points. In the quarterly moving average metric, the indicator fell 1.2 points, to 113.1 points, FGV reported this Tuesday (30).
The Media component of IIE-Br fell 0.5 points, to 109.3 points, contributing negatively with 0.4 points to the aggregate result.
The Expectations component, which measures the dispersion in experts’ forecasts for , rose 3.7 points in the month, reaching 114.5 points, the highest level since December 2024, and contributing positively with 0.8 points to the increase in the IIE-Br.
“After a sharp decline last month, the Uncertainty Indicator rose moderately in June, influenced only by the Expectation component, which returned to the highest level since December 2024,” FGV IBRE economist Anna Carolina Gouveia said in a note.
According to her, the increase reflected the increase in uncertainty surrounding expectations for key macroeconomic variables in the economy over the next 12 months, especially regarding interest rates.
“The uncertainty regarding the coming months arises from factors of external origin, such as global geopolitical tensions and , and internal factors, such as measures to stimulate consumption, with a possible impact on prices”, explained the economist, highlighting that the IIE-Br returned to the level that reflects a moderately high uncertainty and should fluctuate close to this range in the following months.
