On November 1, 1755, the earthquake known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake forever marked the history of Portugal. With an estimated magnitude between 8.5 and 9 on the Richter scale, this devastating earthquake not only destroyed Lisbon, but also caused profound destruction in the Algarve, where several locations were leveled. This disaster was followed by a tsunami and fires, which further intensified the tragedy, resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of lives and impacting the politics, culture and science of the time. Today, experts warn of the possibility of a similar event and the risks it represents, especially for the younger generation living in the southern half of the country, including the Algarve.
Engineering and geology experts have called on the Government to urgently create a seismic reinforcement plan for infrastructures that welcome young people, such as daycare centers and schools. Mário Lopes, professor at Instituto Superior Técnico and specialist in earthquake engineering, highlights the need for a “national program to reinforce daycare centers and schools”. This appeal is particularly relevant in the Algarve, where a technical survey identified that the majority of schools in the region are highly vulnerable to a large magnitude earthquake. Many of these institutions are located in coastal areas that could be flooded by a tsunami generated by an earthquake at sea.
The vulnerability scenario is not limited to schools. According to studies by the National Civil Engineering Laboratory (LNEC), a large part of the housing stock in Greater São Paulo and other areas in the south of the country is not prepared to resist severe earthquakes. In Lisbon, LNEC evaluated 28 schools, recommending seismic reinforcement in 18 of them, but the implementation of these improvements has been hampered by funding impasses between the city hall and the Government.
Public hospitals also face an alarming panorama, with emphasis on the two central hospitals in Lisbon, Santa Maria and São José, which would not be able to withstand a major earthquake. In the case of the new Hospital de Todos os Santos, which began construction recently, scientists alerted the Court of Auditors to the absence of base insulation, a common technology in countries such as Turkey, the United States and Japan, which allows hospital buildings to remain operational. in case of earthquake. In response, the Court of Auditors required the implementation of this security measure, correcting what many considered a serious design error.
In addition to public infrastructure, the housing stock is also not prepared for a new large-scale earthquake. It is estimated that around six hundred thousand people live in vulnerable buildings in Greater Lisbon. Economist António Nogueira Leite stated that, if the 1755 earthquake occurred today, the economic losses would be equivalent to an entire year’s gross domestic product.
Experts criticize the Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR), which provides 700 million euros for the energy improvement of buildings, but does not include any funds for seismic resistance. Carlos Sousa Oliveira, the first Portuguese with a doctorate in earthquake engineering, argues that “energetically rehabilitating a building without seismic reinforcement is useless, because in a big earthquake everything is lost”.
In a recent small earthquake, which woke up the Portuguese population at night, fears that the country is not adequately prepared to face a large-scale earthquake were revived. A broadcast a special report on the topic, produced by Carlos Enes, and stands out as an important resource to raise awareness about this imminent risk, where experts warn that the current situation “requires proactive measures to protect the Algarve and other vulnerable regions. The younger generations, who are the future of the country, deserve to grow up safely and in an environment prepared to respond effectively to seismic risks.”
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