“I will have no difficulty in relation to,” he said (PT) in one of those phrases that seem not to convince or who is talking.
The first two years of Lula 3 registered, even with the distribution of 11 ministries to the Quinteto União Brasil-MDB—.
The long-awaited victory this Saturday (1st) of (União Brasil-AP) in and (Republicans-PB) in the House of Representatives motivated Lula and petistas to express optimism in public, but the scenario remains very bad for the government.
Since the transition in 2022, the petista found himself in the (almost) no way out of having been elected alongside a major-right and right Congress.
He had no option other than with several parties and politicians who were in the government and campaign of Jair Bolsonaro (PL)-special (PP-AL), the Almighty Mayor.
Since then accounting has not changed, nor could. The left remains minority in Congress, and the center and its adjacents, giving the letters.
Already the government lost the honeymoon period from the beginning of management and lived an unstable relationship with its base in Congress even with the distribution of 11 ministries. Last week, he showed that, for the first time, the disapproval of Lula surpassed the approval.
There is no concrete indication that there is a change of pro-government winds within the center or that the change of pacheco for alcohubre and lira by Hugo Motta will promote major twists.
The interviews given by Lira – who still gives the cards in the center – to the newspapers and explain the situation. The government will be in the same bad situation if it decides to exchange six for half a dozen in ministerial reform, and Lula will only have support for his possible candidacy for reelection in 2026 if the boat is not sinking.
When is the last time you heard a candidate to turn Minister by publicly spinning the government for which he is quoted?
If you think that’s weird, what’s the last time you heard a party president who controls three ministries to say that the Finance Minister is weak and that the government would certainly lose the election if it occurred today?
when he learned of the words of “companion Kassab”.
The supposed good mood, as well as manifest optimism with the future relationship with Congress, contrast with reality.
If the popularity does not improve substantially in this and next year, Lula will have problems in Congress.
Unless you accept what Lira and Allies have defended behind the scenes and sometimes publicly, indirectly: the resumption of political articulation and the absolute control of parliamentary amendments they had with Bolsonaro from mid -2020 to 2022.
Although he seal agreement with Lira in late 2022, Lula made a substantial change from Bolsonaro, not outsourcing his political articulation, including the management of parliamentary amendments.
The PT assumed the function, with Alexandre Padilha at the Secretariat of Institutional Relations.
Centrão pretended to accept, because there was no way to draw a president -elect, but always works to try to resume the task and to get more robust ministries, especially health.
Padilha does not inspire confidence in much of the centron’s cardinals and has seen Lira cut relationships with him since 2023.
It may sound blasphemical to ears of root petistas the return to the central of the political articulation of the government, in the molds of what Bolsonaro did, or something similar.
As Lira said, however, and he usually gets most of these analyzes, the government has not endured “a slap from Nikolas”, in reference and which was crucial to force a retreat from the government.
Lula has not yet given clear indication of what he will do, if he will insist on the current model or if he will promote a substantive change in the configuration of his government. The next few weeks will be decisive.
Parallel to these definitions, some petistas will squeeze the hope that and even more so, the investigations of the Federal Police on deviations from these billionaires funds can rebalance their forces.
As no one from Centrão was born yesterday, the final two years of Lula 3 promise.
