The geopolitical challenges of his new term in the White House are analyzed by Bruno Tetre, Deputy Director of the French Strategic Research Foundation (FRS), specializing in international security issues. On January 24, he participated in the 2nd Delphi Forum in Paris, organized by the Delphi Economic Forum and the newspapers “Vima” and “New”.
Which factor or “player” could contain Donald Trump?
“Few internal obstacles are left. The “adults in the room”, that is, the Republicans who tried to limit damage from the inside, are not expected to recover. Congress is enchanted by the US president and will not do much, although some of his most irrational demands may not secure the Senate approval.
There is still the judiciary, but the Supreme Court is controlled by the Republicans. As for external obstacles, Russia and China are countries trying out Trump ».
What can be the impact of Trump on the war in Ukraine? Is the EU prepared?
“Ukraine can be better prepared by Europeans for Trump. I can confirm you from talks with senior Ukrainian officials in the summer of 2023 that they were already preparing for a possible Trump presidency.
Whatever the private relations Putin and Trump have, it is unlikely that the new US president will see his Russian counterpart as powerful as when he left power in January 2021.
Trump likes strong men. He also longs for a Nobel Peace Prize. Therefore, he is ready to push Russia as well as Ukraine. The worst scenario is the complete cessation of US aid to Ukraine, a scenario for which Europeans are preparing. “.
‘I am worried about reducing US presence in NATO’
How will Trump ultimately affect NATO, in whose parliamentary assembly have you served?
“I am not very worried about a formal US withdrawal from NATO. I am much more worried about reducing US presence in NATO. This would be a very bad message to the Kremlin. “
Will the French-German alliance survive or are European cohesion being further shaken?
“The French-German couple has been buried many times and many observers, especially in the US and the United Kingdom, are constantly surprised by its resilience. But it is a deep and constant bilateral relationship. The next elections in Germany will not change it.
The problem is that the couple is weak because the two leaders are weak in their countries. This affects the EU’s ability to make quick and important decisions. A French-German deal is never enough, but always necessary for the EU to move. “.
“Trump’s policies in the Middle East may be surprised”
What is the Trump plan for the Middle East?
“There has already been the impact of Trump on the ceasefire agreement on Gaza. The main terms of the deal had already been forged since last May but Trump asked Netanyahu to sign it before his swearing -in. Israel has complied, partly to ensure good relationships. But in terms of the future, it is still uncertain. It is likely to support today’s Israeli government, perhaps even to the point of accepting the idea of a unilateral attachment of sections of the West Bank. But here is the trap.
This would be something unacceptable to Saudi Arabia, but it is very important for Trump. For business, but also for geopolitical reasons, Trump needs Riyadh’s cooperation to reduce the price of oil on the market, which is necessary to weaken Iran and perhaps Russia. The US president would also like to see Saudi Arabia join Abraham’s so -called agreements.
Thus, it may end up pushing Israel to devise a reasonable path forward for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Trump’s policies in the Middle East can, in summary, be surprised. “.
