This Tuesday (19), Brazil transmits the presidency of the G20 to South Africa, while its diplomats celebrate the leaders’ declaration signed by all members of the group. The assessment of members of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, is that Cyril Ramaphosa will face “more challenges” than Lula.
The most adverse scenario comes down to Donald Trump’s return to the White House. According to sources, the perception is that the republican will join Javier Milei, president of Argentina and a dissonant point at the Rio de Janeiro Summit, in aversion to the multilateral agenda.
Following Lula’s transmission to Ramaphosa, the United States enters the so-called “G20 troika”, which brings together the previous, current and subsequent presidency of the group (in this case, the North American giant, in 2026). In this first moment of interaction, says a diplomat, “it will be possible to take the temperature” of Trump’s actions.
For these foreign relations representatives, the G20 and other international groups are sensitive to the lack of political commitment, and the fear is that US non-engagement will empty the forum. “The outlook is bad, [a gestão Trump] should negatively affect the G20. Some price will be charged, it remains to be seen what,” said a reserved diplomat.
Although Milei played hard against mentions of taxation of the super-rich and features of the 2030 Agenda, such as female empowerment and recognition of the climate calamity, these issues were included in the final declaration. In the end, Argentina also signed the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, led by Brazil.
It turns out, however, that the American economy is around 40 times larger than Argentina’s, and the political power to ban debates would be superior. In 2019, the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, ended without consensus, with Trump’s United States choosing not to endorse the final declaration, emptying the definition.
