From a strictly political point of view, the president’s economics () is a confusing mix of reaffirming his speech, searching for lost voters and the open risk of a debacle a year before the opening of the 2026 electoral race.
Lula put his chips on the table, only to receive not the proverbial 7 to 1 at the end of the day, but a 6 to 1, an allusion to the
With each thoughtful word from (Treasury) during the long delivery of the package, the president gave the real, as they say, as if he wanted to affirm his position as a left-wing spender that he has always had in his heart.
There is calculation in this, and it doesn’t just involve voters on the left fringes who demand from Lula a radicalism that was never the PT member’s hallmark. The package’s focus was on clear concern for what Haddad candidly called the “middle class” in his speech on Wednesday (27).
When announcing the exemption proposal for those earning up to R$5,000, he talks to the beginning of the middle part of the population’s economic pyramid, those who have a monthly income of 2 to 5 minimum wages.
In this group, and worse from there, Lula has had higher rejection rates for his administration. So, if he wanted to paint his uncertain spending cut package with a social color, at least the president tried.
The chance of the measure being postponed for analysis by Congress until next year, especially because it would only be valid in 2026, is huge, but technically it seems difficult that anyone will actually oppose it, nuances. The problem comes at the other end: how to cover this revenue hole.
Haddad says, with calculations and , that it can be done with the so-called tax on the rich, which is highly likely to be blocked in Congress. Obviously, Lula and his usual lieutenant will have someone to blame, but recent history shows that this is ineffective as a way of removing responsibility from those who occupy the Planalto.
The underlying issue is Lula’s admitted inability to appear austere, which is nothing new. The minister has the relative complacency of Faria Lima and a large part of the specialized press, but he cannot achieve miracles, especially when he is scheduled to talk about the future of the economy and spends a lot of time blaming a cursed inheritance.
It exists, but it is irrelevant. Looking ahead, Lula’s effort to recover this lower-middle class electorate, let’s say, is clouded by the evident debacle of indicators that the government is facing.
The 6 to 1, and we don’t even talk about other contradictions of a so-called left-wing government faced with grassroots pressure.
It’s a fetish, of course, but one that directly affects the pockets of the stratum exactly above those who earn up to 5 minimums. We are talking here about who goes to Disney, in the simplifications of the “previous management”, as the Minister of Finance would say.
The irritation of these people has already cost, to be very simplistic here, part of the arithmetic that ousted him from office in 2016. None of this can be foreseen now, even due to Lula’s minimal acumen in the political game, but dissatisfaction is not an item to be ignored.
Furthermore, it all depends on time and how much the market is earning with the dollar at R$6. The more the level is established, through the exclusive work and grace of Lula’s tantrum with economic agents, the greater the risk of the dissatisfaction translates into more inflation and high interest rates to contain it.
From a more political perspective, the entire process of announcing the package is shooting itself in the foot, which suggests the erosion of Lula’s renowned capacity.
Federal PTism was coming off weeks of glory, so to speak, with the exposure of the innards of the coup DNA of () and his colleagues. Even the former president’s response to the Federal Police’s revelations sounds like an admission of guilt.
Bolsonarism even tried to distort, establishing the initial stage of a maneuver doomed to be unconstitutional regarding women’s rights under the law. It didn’t last two newscasts, with Lula doing the job for Bolsonaro for free.
