The president () leads in all second-round dispute scenarios in which he appears, according to a new Quaest survey released this Thursday (12).
In one of the most likely scenarios if (‘s) ineligibility is maintained, Lula would beat the governor of São Paulo, (), with 52% against 26% if the election were held today, according to the survey. Before the former president, it would have 51% to 35%.
The research did not include first-round scenarios.
The PT member also wins, in second round simulations, () and (), the latter this Wednesday (11) for eight years due to abuse of political power, in a decision against which there is still an appeal.
The research and consultancy company interviewed in person this round 8,598 voters aged 16 or over from the 4th until last Monday (9). The margin of error is one percentage point, plus or minus.
Against the influencer, the president would have 52% against 27%, and, against the governor of Goiás, he would have 54% against 20%.
The results come shortly after completing two years, according to Quaest. 33% evaluate the PT administration positively, compared to 31% who have a negative opinion, and 34% who consider it to be regular. Still 2% did not know or did not want to answer.
A total of eight scenarios were tested, four with the presence of Lula, and another four if the PT candidate is . The Finance Minister also leads against the same opponents, despite having less of an advantage.
Haddad would have 44% in dispute against Tarcísio, who registered 25%. Against Bolsonaro, he scored 42% against 35% for the former head of the Executive and maintained similar levels against Marçal and Caiado.
Furthermore, for 52% of those interviewed, Lula should not run for re-election in 2026. If he does not run, 27% consider that the Minister of Finance should be the government’s candidate. Another 17% cite () and 14%, the vice president ().
On the other side of the spectrum, 21% believe that the former first lady would be the strongest candidate against Lula if Bolsonaro remains ineligible. Next comes Marçal with 18% and Tarcísio, with 17%.
The current president also has an advantage over his opponents involving the potential of votes to receive. According to Quaest, 52% know him and would vote for him, compared to 45% who would not choose him and 3% who do not know who he is.
Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has 57% of voters who know him, but would not choose him. 37% would vote for him, and 6% say they don’t know him.
At the same level as Bolsonaro is Haddad, who has 52% of voters refractory to his possible candidacy, compared to 31% who know him and would support him.
