The “big loser” in is the , underlines in Vima F. Gregory Gouse III, Professor of International Relations at the Bush School of Government, Texas A&M University, Texas, USA.
This could push Tehran “to seek diplomatic solutions” with and, indirectly through the US, Israel and the Gulf states, Mr. Gouse who specializes in international politics of the Middle East and US foreign policy in the region.
The possibility, however, of causing a “new crisis” cannot be ruled out, continues the author of the book “Structural Obstacles to Iran-Arab Gulf Reconciliation” (Middle East Institute, 2022), in the event that Tehran chooses to go its way “completion of its nuclear capability”.
First of all, do you see a chronological connection between the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement and the overthrow of Assad in Syria?
“Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s victorious offensive came after Hezbollah was severely damaged by Israel and the possibility of it being able to intervene to help Assad diminished. It also followed the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. However, ‘.
Are the current rapid developments in Syria the result of the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah? Would the Assad regime fall if the two organizations remained strong, with living leaderships?
“Indeed, the key to the developments is the drastic weakening of Hezbollah, but simultaneously with the absorption of Russia on the Ukrainian front. Hamas is less relevant, as its fighters, to my knowledge, have never been deployed to Syria to aid the Assad regime, as have Hezbollah and other Shiite militias.”
Is the “Axis of Resistance” a thing of the past for Syria?
“The Axis of Resistance, as an Iranian-led front, has collapsed and been uprooted from Syria. “Given that the Syrian opposition is Sunni Islamist and blames Iran for supporting the Assad regime, it is unlikely that there will be a strong Iranian presence in post-Assad Syria.”
Who do the developments favor?
“Turkey may benefit, in the short term. But a Syria with Kurds able to extend their control in the east and improve their negotiating position, in view of the next permanent Syrian government, .
Also, while the developments represent a victory for Israel in its shadow war against Iran, in the long run, if a Sunni Islamist government continues to exist in Damascus, it could develop into a new kind of threat to Israel. The US benefits indirectly from the defeat of Russia and Iran, but there are not so many direct US interests in Syria and so much US involvement.”
Do you think Russia will be able to maintain any influence in Syria?
“It will try to maintain its bases on the Syrian coast, but the new government will exact a heavy price for this, perhaps more than Russia can bear.”
What does the selection of Islamist militant Mohamed Al-Bashir, former head of the rebel-led Salvation government – which ruled parts of northwestern Syria and Idlib – reflect for Syria’s new leadership, as the country’s interim prime minister until March 1, 2025 ;
“The new prime minister comes from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main rebel force and a very conservative Sunni Islamist group. His appointment therefore signals that this particular organization intends to be the dominant force in the new government.”
There are analysts who predict the dismemberment of Syria. Is it possible? Or do you prefer the country to continue as an anti-Shia state under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or, alternatively, as an Islamic Republic with co-rule by opposition forces?
“No one knows the answer. The situation is extremely fluid and will depend on many factors, some of which we probably haven’t even thought about yet.”
Will there be new regional players, beyond the current “protagonists”, who will claim a role in the post-Assad era in Syria?
“In addition to what is certain, which is Turkey, many of the Gulf states will try to use their money and diplomatic position to influence developments in the country. but, other than backing the mainly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, Washington has few assets to risk in the country. The Israelis, on the other hand, have military power, but no obvious allies in Syria’s domestic politics.”
What do you see the regional consequences of the changes, starting with Gaza, to be?
“The war in Gaza continues according to Israel’s timetable. I don’t think the changes in Syria affect him. Hezbollah in Lebanon is weakened by the Iranian retreat and the loss of a land “bridge” to Lebanon. Iran must be considered the big loser. How the Syrian front will affect Iranian policy in the region in the future is hotly debated in Tehran today.
and indirectly through the US with Israel, and the Gulf States. This would include suspending Iranian support for the Houthis in Yemen. Or, it could create a sense of heightened threat in Tehran, which in turn could lead the Iranian government to take the final steps to complete its nuclear capability, leading to a new crisis.”
H Israeli newspaper Haaretz notes, however, Tel Aviv’s concern that the fall of Assad “will push Iran to assemble a nuclear bomb.”
“There is indeed that possibility.”
