Conflict in Europe is the biggest since World War II on European soil; There is still no clarity on how peace can be negotiated
The wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip mark the beginning of another year. On Ukrainian soil, the biggest conflict on European soil since the 2nd World War continues and will probably complete 3 years on February 24, 2025.
There is still no clarity on how a peace can be negotiated between Russian President Vladimir Putin (United Russia, center) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (Servant of the People, center).
Zelensky has proposed since 2022 that the war should be ended with his which included the return of all Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russians and Kiev’s accession to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in order to guarantee the security of the Eastern European country.
The idea, however, did not advance and the conflict escalated during 2024. Ukraine began to long-range missiles from the United States. Russia responded with hypersonic rockets. This led Putin to the conflict as “global”.
TRUMP’S INFLUENCE ON THE CONFLICT
The president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump (Republican Party), tries to portray himself as a mediator in the conflict. It has already reached that the end of the war in Ukraine is his priority in his 2nd government. But it is unclear how he will influence the resolution of the dispute between Putin and Zelensky.
Trump is critical of the aid sent to the Ukrainians and his vice president, JD Vance (Republican Party), came to during the election campaign that the US would propose an agreement in which Ukraine would cede the territories occupied by Moscow and not join NATO – which would be an agreement that would supposedly please the Russian leader.
This positioning by Trump contributes to making the direction of the conflict uncertain. From the perspective of professor of International Law at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais) Lucas Carlos Lima, it will be important to observe the republican’s position and his ability to influence Putin and Zelensky.
For the professor of International Relations at UFPE (Federal University of Pernambuco) Miguel Mikelli, in light of his 1st term, the future North American president will focus on the domestic environment and, internationally, will present himself as a mediator of conflicts.
“I don’t think there will be an escalation of the conflict because in the first government he made it clear that his policy was isolationist. However, the lack of greater engagement by the United States in international settings could be a problematic element”declared Mikelli in an interview with Poder360.
CONFLICT IN GAZA
The war fought since October 7, 2023 between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip took on new proportions in 2024. Tension between the Israelis and the Iranians intensified and both exchanged at different times of the year.
Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas and Iran, has become more relevant to tensions in the Middle East. The group increased its attacks against northern Israel, which responded by advancing troops into Lebanese territory and attacking Beirut.
A principle of peace was achieved with the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The treaty has until mid-January to be implemented, but there are several aspects of the pact.
Meanwhile, truce negotiations in Gaza have been unsuccessful. Different resolutions were presented and some were even approved, but, in practice, none were effective.
Talks for a ceasefire are expected to evolve throughout 2025. The Israeli government says it is more confident in the return of Hamas hostages captured in the October 7, 2023 attacks. Around 130 people are believed to still be held in the enclave by the extremist group.
The Palestinian extremist group has been weakened by the exhaustion of some of its close allies, such as former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Hezbollah. This opened the door for Israeli and Hamas negotiations involving the hostages.
This post was produced by journalism intern José Luis Costa under the supervision of editor Ighor Nóbrega.
