The changes of command planned for the National Congress should not bring significant changes in the relationship with the Lula government, according to an assessment by political analyst Junia Gama. After the legislative recess, parliamentarians will choose the new formation of the Board of Directors of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
According to Gama, the names being considered to assume the presidencies of the legislative houses are close to the current leaders. In the Chamber, Hugo Mota, considered the favorite, belongs to Arthur Lira’s trusted core. In the Senate, the expectation is the return of Davi Alcolumbre, an ally of Rodrigo Pacheco.
Economic and budgetary challenges
Despite the likely maintenance of the status quo in the relationship between the Executive and Legislative, the Lula government will face significant challenges in 2024. The analyst highlights that the country begins the year with ‘unanchored exchange rate’ and ‘inflation above target’, in addition to pending issues to be resolved.
An additional point of tension will be the issue of parliamentary amendments. The freezing of R$4.2 billion in amendments at the end of 2023, determined by STF minister Flávio Dino, will require a new agreement between the Executive and the Legislative on the functioning of this part of the budget.
Less favorable scenario for the economic agenda
Junia Gama observes that the current scenario is different from that found at the beginning of the government, when Congress was more receptive to the economic agenda. Now, there is greater difficulty in approving matters aimed at increasing revenue.
The analyst recalls that, at the end of 2023, the government was unable to approve the increase in the CSLL (Social Contribution on Net Profit) and changes in the JCP (Interest on Own Capital). These pending issues, added to the need to pacify the issue of amendments, will be fundamental for the government’s relationship with Congress in 2025.
