Ukraine hopes to receive security guarantees and protection against possible new Russian aggression from the upcoming negotiations. A recent suggests that The coming weeks will be decisive not only for Ukraine, but for global geopolitical stability and the credibility of the West.
Likewise, he warns that talks can’t be sped up because it could lead to taking a bad decision that would allow Russia to replenish its military arsenal and, once its war capacity has been recovered, resume attacks.
The opinion article specifies that, if Vladimir Putin manages to consolidate the territorial gains obtained since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, a dangerous precedent: he use of military force as an effective means to reconfigure international borders.
“Ukraine is unlikely to survive another year of this devastating war. But the rush to find a negotiated solution could lead to a bad decision that rewards Putin for the lands he has acquired and ensures that he will immediately launch another attack once he has the opportunity,” the authors warn.
“To rebuild his depleted arsenal, such an agreement would also anger the Ukrainians. Their anger will be directed at the West, which has betrayed them. This is a battle that the United States and Ukraine cannot lose,” they add.
The role of the US and NATO
The authors of the editorial point out that the lack of formal NATO commitment to Ukrainebecause the country is not a member of the alliance, further complicates the situation. Military support from the United States and its allies depends on political will, a variable that could change drastically with the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the country.
Trump has expressed his intention to seek peaceand some points of his possible plan have already circulated in the media. However, his approach could change the course of the conflict, and the delay in the trip of his special envoy to kyiv, Keith Kelloggadd a layer of uncertainty.
Pressure on Ukraine at the front
On the domestic front, Ukraine faces monumental challenges. With human losses estimated at 400,000 dead and wounded, The country struggles to maintain its defense capacity. Although some Western partners have pushed to lower the mobilization age to 18, President Volodymyr Zelensky has resisted, limiting himself to reduce the age of mobilization from 27 to 25 years in 2023.
Besides, The wear and tear of war is beginning to show in Europe. Las weapons stocks are declining and the political support for Ukraine comes under pressureespecially in countries where right-wing parties have gained ground. The upcoming parliamentary elections in Germany could aggravate the situation if support for kyiv weakens further.
