In the last decade there has been no shortage of problems in American-Turkish relations. From counterclaims on the issues of the Middle East and Russia to support for the Syrian Kurds, Washington’s relations with Ankara are used to going from one crisis to another.
After his election, the Turkish side seems to see a window of opportunity to improve relations and overcome obstacles. With this in mind, he is making similar moves in Washington that aim to prepare the ground for the coming four years.
The scope
He bets once again on the personal relationship and “chemistry” with Trump, an element that was apparently absent during his years in office Joe Biden. There is no doubt that the Turkish president prefers to bypass the complexities of the American political system and negotiate problems directly at the highest level with Trump.
The problem, however, is for the mover to be able to do what he possibly promises. This became evident during Trump’s first term but also later, with Biden, when Ankara’s plans stumbled several times in the crosshairs of Congress, where Turkey’s position has declined dramatically in recent years.
The extent to which Turkey’s image in the Capitol has been damaged is also shown by the reduction in the number of members of the American-Turkish friendship group in the House of Representatives. For example, in 2015-2016 it had 160 members, making it the third largest group after those of India and Taiwan. Today the Turkey team has only 81 members.
This lesson seems to have been learned in Ankara, which is why after the November elections lobbying firms and friends of Turkey are reactivating strongly in Congress. According to information, in these appointments the representatives of Turkey put defense cooperation and the need to unblock outstanding armament issues as the main topic.
Also, a second topic they focus on is . The goal of this “opening” is to improve the political climate for Turkey in Congress so that Trump’s possible moves will this time find more receptive ears in the corridors of the Capitol.
Negative climate
However, this strategy has not yet borne fruit and the negative climate for Turkey has not been overcome in Congress. This practically means that without a substantive solution to the issue of Turkey’s Russian S-400s, US lawmakers are not going to soften their stance on the country’s return to the F-35 program.
Also, on the issue of Kurdish fighters in Syria, the contacts of the Turkish side have not produced results given that the vast majority of legislators, especially the conservative ones, are still opposed to any aggressive action. in which ISIS fighters are held. In Ankara they have now realized that there is not going to be any sane person in Washington who will risk opening Pandora’s box in Syria by allowing the Turks to strike the Kurds.
Detention centers
That is why Ankara is adjusting its strategy accordingly, putting on the table for the first time the idea of Turkey itself taking responsibility for the detention centers of ISIS fighters. This proposal can potentially change the facts and it remains to be seen how it will be evaluated by members of Congress. In a previous conversation with “To Vima”, the US Deputy Secretary of State John Bass had indicated that it is reasonable to expect the transition of control of the detention centers from the Kurds to some central administration in Syria, but did not specify a time horizon.
The “window of opportunity” that Turkey sees since the election of Trump may be smaller than it had originally imagined. The Center for American Progress analyst, Alan Makowskiwrites in an article entitled “Turkey: Managing an Unfriendly Ally” that US-Turkish relations are becoming more fragile as “one of Turkey’s strongest pillars of support, American-Jewish organizations, today are mostly hostile because of Erdogan’s relentless anti-Israel rhetoric and support for Hamas.”
