In 2025 the average consumer will pay more for electricity, gas and fuel. The taxes—the new ones and the recovered ones—; the (mal)functioning of the wholesale electricity market; the progressive reduction of aid; Geopolitical tensions, and the evolution of demand derived from artificial intelligence (AI), among other factors, will have a notable impact on pockets. “and the return of uncertainty,” say Grupo ASE analysts. The key, the level of gas reserves with which the winter in Europe ends. “The weather and, with volatility as the protagonist,” they add. With nuances, there is a lowest common denominator in the forecasts of the large energy groups: stability in oil prices; higher gas prices in Europe, and stable or somewhat higher electricity prices in Spain.
In the electricity section, it is easy to predict increases in the bill because the VAT returns to the rate of 21% and will be progressively reduced to 35% for vulnerable consumers and 50% for the severely vulnerable. The equation is simple: more taxes – in 2024 the special tax on electricity was also increased (5.11%) – and less aid, equal to more expensive electricity. The Government plans to maintain the 7% tax on generation companies – PP, Junts and PNV are opposed – and reviews the balance of the system to avoid deficits with increases in the fixed part of the bill, the “charges and tolls” of 39% .
The OCU has done the global account. According to its forecasts, there will be a 13% increase in the electricity bill by 2025. For households in the free market, the estimated increase is 13.4%, equivalent to an additional 118 euros per year, while for those in the PVPC—around seven million, 30% of the total—an increase of 12.5% is estimated, about 106 euros more per year. The Ministry of Ecological Transition highlights that despite the increases in the regulated part of the receipt, and adding all the amounts, it will be 7% higher than in 2019, much lower than the accumulated inflation of these years (of the order of 18%). .
So more expensive electricity, but in a country that is moving towards decarbonization. “This year, 56% of electricity generation has been renewable,” says Jorge Morales, general director of Próxima Energía, convinced that in the very short term “the first electricity generation technology in Spain will be solar energy.” The consequence, which has already been seen in 2024 and will worsen in 2025, will be an enormous difference in prices between hours, with great supply and negative prices in the central hours of the day and recourse to gas in hours or seasons in which there is no wind or there is less sunlight. Changes in the structure of electricity generation and fluctuations in hourly prices will also drive changes in the contracting of supply both in companies—the majority consume during daylight hours—and in individuals. The wholesale electricity market – the pool – already contemplates price matching every 15 minutes for this year and, although in Spain there is still a culture that prioritizes stability in contracting – a third of domestic consumers remain on the regulated rate, the PVPC—the search for offers to save is becoming more and more common. The CNMC data reflects the trend. In 2023, 6.4 million customers changed suppliers and at the beginning of 2024 another two million were activated, with increases of 11% in one year.
In an electricity market marked by the slowdown in demand – in 2024, the accumulated demand barely grew by 0.7%, to 225,532 GWh -, large distributors are demanding free rein to invest in networks, without the current limits linked to GDP (0 ,13%). A way to ensure income and facilitate business growth. Patxi Calleja, director of regulation at Iberdrola Spain, explains: “We must meet the demand that is already here, facilitating its connection to the electrical system, and therefore it is necessary to encourage more investments in electrical networks. At these times, when geopolitics threatens energy stability, it is strategic to work more on electrification to take advantage of the energy autonomy that renewables and storage make possible, compared to the apostolate of black gold.” It may be more the expression of a wish than reality, but the large electricity companies assure that demand is increasing after years of declines thanks to the boost in industrial activity, electric vehicles and other uses, such as air conditioning in companies and homes.
On the oil side, the most accepted forecast indicates that prices will remain stable at an annual average of 75 dollars per barrel of crude oil, with high seasonal volatility, in line with the prices of 2023 and 2024. Repsol explains that “ a similar level of supply and demand is expected [a 2024]. On the supply side, potential overproduction is expected, while on the demand side, a limited increase in consumption in China and increases in India and Africa are expected.” Stability or not, the probability that Spanish drivers will pay more to fill up their tank is high. Especially for diesel vehicle owners. The Government has stumbled twice on the plan to equalize taxes on diesel and gasoline, but hopes to tweak the special hydrocarbon tax in the spring. It will cost the diesel vehicle user around 10 cents more per liter to fill a tank.
Gas inventories
In the energy year, there is another key market. The one with gas. In Europe, 2024 ended with inventory levels below those of the previous year, even lower than the average of the last nine years. The trend is greater demand for heating and lower supply of US LNG compared to the previous year. This explains, in part, the increase in prices in recent months. One of the elements that influence the price will be the closure of the gas pipeline that imports gas to Europe from Russia through Ukraine. Everything points to somewhat higher prices in 2025. It is important because for every euro increase in the price of gas, the price of electricity rises two euros.
In Spain, the trend is key because, despite advances in renewables, gas remains essential to ensure supply when the wind is not blowing or there is a drought. And it will continue to be. The National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) for 2030 foresees 26,000 MW of gas compared to 4,800 MW of solar thermal energy or 12,000 MW of electrolyzers (hydrogen). Of course, the political-business team in the gas sector, the one that will set the pace in large operations, is notable: Arturo Gonzalo Aizpiri (PSOE) at the helm of Enagás; Josu Jon Imaz (former president of the PNV) on the Repsol bridge, and Ángel Acebes (former PP minister) on the deck of Iberdrola.
