The Trump administration “will focus on the battles of domestic American politics”while foreign policy and Europe “they will retreat from her agenda”predicts the emeritus professor of Political Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the USA, speaking to “Vima” Roger Petersen.
Basic “victim” of the re-elected Donald Trumpadds the American expert, it will not be immigrants but freedom of speech.
The day (tomorrow) of the inauguration of the 47th president of the USA has arrived. Do you think the return of Donald Trump to the White House is a turning point for American politics?
“I estimate that in the American political scene it is more the result of an evolutionary process, specifically the decline of the Center-Left throughout the Western world.
In my opinion, both Mr. Trump as much as Elon Musk is more a symptom than a cause of this process. From an academic’s perspective, the change we are seeing that led to the re-election of Mr. Trump is mainly a result of structural and cultural processes rather than an issue related to the personality part, and especially the strong “I”, of the leaders”.
Despite the extreme declarations and threats of the new president, what do you think will be the main axes of his second presidency in domestic and foreign policy? There is, in your view, cause for real concern
“The Trump administration will focus on the battles of domestic American politics. and the Panama Canal will probably fade away. In general, both foreign policy and Europe will retreat from the Trump agenda for tariff policy to dominate. We will see a particular focus on imposing tariffs while at the same time introducing regressive tax cuts and dramatically increasing the deficit. Undoubtedly, the Trump administration will also introduce anti-immigration policies. The above are part of normal political management and do not constitute unconstitutional power grabs.
I reckon he won’t do mass deportations after all. If Mr. Trump, contrary to predictions, the domestic economic turmoil, not to mention the political protest, will be massive. Regarding Mr. Musk, the US defense establishment will likely prove impervious to any of his efforts at “efficiency.” We should realize that the president of the USA and the richest man in the world aligned with him Elon Musk are not political figures but common bullies. They exploit every weakness – there are weak European leaders who are their ideal target. Yet when these characters must coexist, they clash.
Nevertheless, the design of the bully anthropotype, and especially the inflated ego of Trump and Musk, lacks coherence. Indeed, we find that Mr. Trump and Musk do not have a coherent or unified approach to issues such as Ukraine and the European Right. Mr. Trump has said he will quickly end the war. But he appointed Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Michael Waltz as national security adviser, who are unlikely to support a quick withdrawal from Ukraine. Mr. Musk, on the other hand, supports right-wing candidates in Europe, but turns against them at the slightest provocation, as happened with Nigel Farage in the UK.”
So do you see infighting in the new Trump administration?
“Absolutely. We have already witnessed the dispute between Vivek Ramaswamy and Musk, who will co-exist in the “ministry” of Government Efficiency, over the H-1B visa of foreign workers in the so-called skilled trades.
Summarizing, the most disturbing elements of the second presidency of Mr. Trump is social rather than political. I am primarily referring to the suppression of any form of dissent and freedom of speech in corporations and the mass media, which is nevertheless acceptable to a large part of the American public.”
Is there anything that, in your opinion, could hold back the new US president?
“Main elements of his ‘slowing down’ will be, first of all, the incompetence of both himself and many members of his team, as well as internal strife among his associates.
And, of course, the Supreme Court, which may block some of the president’s outrageous initiatives if Justices John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett side with their liberal colleagues, as they did in the Trump conviction in New York in the hush money” (s.s.: for the financing of former porn star Stormy Daniels)”.
For now, however, Trump will face a powerless, defeated opposition that will remain silent on his absurd pronouncements.
“The Democratic Party will recover. The two-party political system has been in place since the 1840s and is not going away. Moreover, the Democrats are not in the sorry state that the Republicans were in the 1930s or the mid-1970s. In fact, the Democrats are very likely to retake the House in two years.
Only three to four seats are needed. Historically, the party in opposition does well in midterm elections. Although his authority will be limited until they are carried out.”
You mentioned that weak European leaders are an ideal target for Trump. What challenge do you see it posing for Europe?
“First of all, European leaders are weak for internal reasons. We see Emmanuel Macron in France struggling to form a government. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to fend off a challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany in the upcoming February elections. Germany’s model, which relies on cheap Russian energy and Chinese markets, also faces long-term problems. Beyond the individual states, the European Union has also proved little capable of standing up to the US. The EU needs the US to protect it against Russia and to lead NATO’s support for Ukraine.
Beyond this dependency, the EU has shown little courage to stand up to the US on other issues – e.g. stood idly by when the US gave Israel unconditional support for mass killings in Gaza. In my view, Europeans will not stand united to face the US bully government. However, against the weak and preoccupied leaders, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni traveled to Mar-a-Lago to “ally” with Trump.
