“President Trump will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement,” reads the priorities that the White House released on Monday after. In his previous term (2017-2021), Donald Trump made his country part of the pact and disdained the international fight against climate change, a problem that this politician routinely questions. In fact, in that same priorities document his team promises to end what they call “Biden’s climate extremism policies.” As soon as he landed in the White House, Trump signed a battery of executive orders, including the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement.
This pact, signed in 2015 in the French capital, has as a global objective that the increase in temperature during this century remains between 1.5 and 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. Last year we already reached a warming of 1.5 degrees and if the second global emitter and the first historically responsible for climate change dissociates itself from this fight, it will be even more difficult to meet Paris, although some experts insist that Trump will not be able to stop the transition towards renewables, the main ally in this war.
With its departure, the United States joins the small list of countries that are not part of the Paris Agreement, which includes Iran, Libya and Yemen. But what impact will this abandonment have on the climate fight? Here are some clues about what will happen from now on.
When will your departure from the Paris Agreement become effective?
Democrat Joe Biden reintegrated the United States into the Paris Agreement on the first day of his mandate, in 2021; and with a similar order Trump takes out his country again, who has had among his political obsessions trying to dynamit this international pact that seeks to ensure that warming—which fuels extreme events such as the fires that have hit Los Angeles—stays within the the least catastrophic limits possible.
The Paris Agreement, signed almost a decade ago, is the development of the , adopted in 1992 and in which it was already established that the greenhouse gases emitted by humans are behind global warming. To exit the Paris Agreement, the US Government must present a formal letter requesting it to the secretariat of the framework convention. And within a year the departure for the second time of the first historical person responsible for climate change would be consummated.
What will happen with the commitments to cut greenhouse gases?
All countries that are within that pact are obliged to present national plans to cut their greenhouse emissions. The United States is currently the second largest emitter in the world (accumulating 11% of the total), behind China (30%). But if you look at what has been emitted since 1850, when this problem began due to the massive burning of fossil fuels, the United States is the country that has expelled the most of these gases into the atmosphere in these more than 170 years.
What pacts like the Paris Agreement seek is for countries to assume their responsibilities, report their emissions to the UN and present plans to cut their gases. This year, the almost 200 signatories of Paris must put their new plans on the table and the acting Democratic Administration announced a week ago in which it promised that the United States would reduce its greenhouse emissions between 61% and 66% in 2035, starting of 2005 levels. Leaving the Paris Agreement will mean that the US will no longer feel concerned by these cutback promises. And some experts fear that could reduce pressure on other big polluters, such as China, to make bigger commitments.
Will US emissions increase?
The United States reached its peak emissions in 2007 and has been on a downward trend since then, although not at the speed necessary to help keep warming within the safe limits established by science and set in Paris.
In the worst scenario, in which Trump also repeals the Inflation Reduction Law that Biden approved and which has meant launching a system of incentives for renewable energies and the associated industry, which would occur between now and 2035. is that US emissions would only fall between 24% and 40% in 2035 compared to 2005 levels (compared to the 66% that was promised in the plan that Democrats presented in December), according to calculations by the consulting firm Rhodium, specialized in climate policies. In the most pessimistic scenario of this simulation, they would remain at levels similar to the current ones for the next ten years, but they would not increase, because the advance of renewables continues to narrow the business margin for fossil fuels.
Simon Stiell, secretary general of the UN framework convention on climate change, has emphasized after Trump’s announcement “the global boom” in clean energy, “valued at two trillion dollars last year alone.” And he has insisted that ignoring that context “will only send all that enormous wealth to competing economies.” Trump has promised to increase oil and gas extraction (the US is the world’s largest producer of these fuels), however, this does not seem to be the global trend in the medium term. The International Energy Agency predicts that fuel prices (which may lead to a halt in global production) and that demand for oil and gas will peak in 2030.
In his previous term, Trump also promised a coal revival in the United States, something that did not happen in his previous four years in the White House. Now, their proclamations no longer focus on coal, but on oil and gas. But experts highlight the role that many cities and states will play within the country, which will continue to invest in renewables and electric mobility. “Despite President Trump’s attempts to destroy progress on climate change, a group of governors, mayors and other leaders have pledged to stand firm and enact low-carbon policies that reduce costs, create jobs and build cleaner communities,” said Debbie Weyl, director of the World Resources Institute (WRI) in the US. “The clean energy revolution will continue regardless of who is in the White House,” she added.
Will more countries imitate the US?
Also in his previous term, the Republican assured that he would negotiate a new climate treaty that would be more beneficial for the interests of the United States. And it did not happen: no country followed in its footsteps or abandoned Paris. Now, the world is different, for better and worse. On the one hand, right-wing populism, which has the denial of climate change among its obsessions, is advancing in the world. In Argentina, for example, President Javier Milei, which was held in November in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. Although there was speculation that his country would leave the Paris Agreement, it did not take that step.
In Europe the panorama is also different due to the advance of the ultra-conservatives. In 2019, when Trump took a step back in the climate fight, the European Union took one step forward and placed the climate fight as one of its main flags, something that has now taken a backseat with the new Commission, much more right-wing. .
But 2025 is also different from 2017 for the better, according to Laurence Tubiana, a French politician considered one of the architects of the Paris Agreement. “There is an unstoppable economic momentum behind the global transition, from which the United States has benefited and led, but which now risks losing,” he maintains. “It is unfortunate that the United States is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, but multilateral climate action has proven to be resilient and is stronger than the policies and measures of any single country,” adds Tubiana in a statement.
What will happen to climate finance?
The Paris Agreement not only seeks to reduce emissions, it also seeks to get richer countries to help those with fewer resources adapt to the consequences of global warming and clean up their energy systems. At the last climate summit, COP29, it was agreed that the most powerful nations must . And the US withdrawal will undoubtedly create a hole in that financing, as already happened in Trump’s previous term.
But in the Baku pact, the door was opened to new avenues of financing, such as contributions from multilateral cooperation banks, since China, which has been expected to take a step forward for years, also actively contributes to achieve that financial aid goal.
