The leaders of the European Union meet this Monday in Brussels for an informal summit in which they will explore roads to reinforce the European defense policy, Increase military spending and gain independence in an increasingly unpredictable and unstable world. The pressure has been redoubled with the return of Donald Trump To the White House, but experts doubt the viability of achieving investment in defense of 5% of GDP required by the US president.
The feeling is urgent, but not panic. The EU has to be more independent and take responsibility for their safety. The mantra is an answer to the threats of Vladimir Putinbut also at Trump’s pressure. “It is not a matter of ‘yes’, but of ‘how’. The address is clear: there will be more expense, there must be more expense,” says a high community source.
In this summit there are no great decisions or ads, but an honest conversation between leaders about What can the EU do in terms of defense, and above all, How will you pay it. The objective is to identify weaknesses, capabilities to reinforce and areas to work together, and put a price. Then it will be the European Commission The one that presents a series of proposals and the twenty -seven will address the issue again in June, just before the NATO summit in The Hague.
Military capacities depend largely on the Takeso talking about defense means exploring what the EU can do, how can it contribute to a industrial policy in full adjustment process and, above all, how to finance it. “All these are intense and complex debates and we are trying to have them at the same time,” acknowledges a high European source, which rives: “It will be difficult, but we have to do it.”
5% of Trump
According to the European Defense Agency, European countries They have increased their expenditure in defense by 30% Between 2021 and 2024, a period that coincides with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To the perception of Russian threat And the objectives set by NATO, now add the white house pressure. But the investment varies markedly from one country to another. According to the alliance quotes, Poland It is the country that spends the most, with 4.12%; while Spacewith 1.28%, they are in line.
Experts agree that it is essential for Europe to increase its defense expenditure. Not for the Trump pressurebut for the Situation in Ukrainelas Threats on the southern flankthe risks derived from Climate change or other global challenges. But experts also believe that the 5% proposed by Trump is not only unfeasible, but also counterproductive.
To Juraj MajcinPolitical Analyst of the European Policy Center, “is not realistic.” Majcin alleges that the contraration process are long and complex and the industry is not prepared to absorb a capital injection of that caliber. “Industrial capacity is not there, so with a high demand and a limited supply, there would be an increase in prices,” he explains.
An opinion shared by Rafael Lossof the European Council on Foreign Relations. “If we compare the budgets of Lithuania and Germany, or Estonia and Germany, Estonia You can reach 5% by adding a couple of hundreds of millions of euros. For Germanyare hundreds of thousands of millions, “explains Loss. Berlin currently dedicates 2.12% to the defense, far from Estonia or 3.15% of Latvia.
Possible agreement around 3%
This expert also expresses serious doubts about the ability of countries to mobilize such money, be it through a Tax increase or of Transfers from areas to otherswith the political cost that this supposes. And it coincides with a majority that the defense industry is already having trouble absorbing the remarkable increase in defense expenditure that Europe has seen in recent years.
Piotr Szymańskiexpert in defense of the Center for Eastern Studies, does not see 5% as much as a feasible objective in the short term, but as a kind of medium and long guide. Points to what The agreement will be predictably around 3%in order to meet the objectives that NATO has been marked in terms of strengthening its capacities both at the arms level and personnel.
In Szymański’s opinion, it is a “huge problem that some allies are very far from 2%.” This is the case of Space, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Belgium, Italia, Portugal y Croatia. That is why it alleges that one of the keys will be how an agreement on a higher objective is configured, “taking into account rapid actions given the challenges s who face Europe.”
The role of the EU
Several community sources recognize that, in relation to capacities, NATO has command. But also that the EU can play an important role facilitating investment in the sector, and that European security issues also affect neutral or non -members of the alliance as a Austria, Ireland, Cyprus o Malta.
Use European funds to pay weapons ceased to be taboo after Russian Ukraine Invasion. The use of the European budget for that purpose is already on the table, although the need for unanimity in decisions makes it complicated. But the EU can also contribute supporting the European industry so that I can face an increase in demand. Here, yes, the sector asks for long -term perspective and a clear vision.
In addition to the funds, there are other tools. Last Friday, a group of 19 countries, led by Finlandia And among which is Spacethey asked the European Investment Bank that increases the expense in defense. The BEI exists to help finance projects that contribute research and technological development, to create employment and promote economic growth.
Although the BEI has significantly increased its investment in defense, it has been mostly in double -use projects. Because its rules currently They prohibit the financing of weapons, ammunition and military equipment. This is what this group of countries wants to change. “Investing in our defense is not the same as investing in porn or tobacco,” says a high diplomatic source.
2% national investment
But then there is the national investment: The famous 2% of GDP. A community source acknowledges “that no one can be forced to increase defense spending” and that the budgetary situation of each country is different, so, in good part of them, raising that expense would be associated with cuts in other areas . “But there is a common understanding that it is inevitable,” adds the same source.
Also here the EU has an important role. More and more voices, even among traditionally frugal countriescall to make the fiscal norms of the Union more flexible, to give a certain budgetary margin to the countries that need it to invest in defense. What was a key aspect of the negotiation of the reform of these standards returns to the table, in full climb of tensions.
“There is a generalized consensus that we have to use the flexibility that the rules give us To the extent possible, “says a high European source, which aims that, precisely, the advantage of common projects is that they allow resources and be more efficient. Also that more and more countries understand the investment in defense as a Contribution to economic growth from technological development and job creation.
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