Despite Friedrich Merz’s very criticized step in late January, when he allied with AFD at Bundestag to approve two migration and safety motions, the far-right sanitary cord remains and the CDU goes on in the polls. Once the day of early federal elections have come, this Sunday, it is safe to say that the conservative leader will be the next German chancellor. Right it, just unknowns
A German shepherd with a resigned air rests on a woman’s lap with the acronym AFD printed on the collar of his shirt. He is beaten and with a leash attached to the collar, which the woman holds firmly. In the animal’s loin reads “CDU” and landed on his muzzle are some rectangular frame glasses, all similar to those of the most likely future German chancellor. A plate hanging from the dog’s collar nullifies any doubt: “Merz”.
That cartoonist Joep Bertars paints Germany’s current political scenario-Friedrich Merz, conservative party leader, in the hands of Alice Weidel, the leader of the Alternative Highlight Party for Germany (AFD). The illustration was published two weeks before this Sunday’s legislatures, in which the Merz party is expected to be first and the political formation of Weidel, of Nazi ideology, should achieve its best result since the fall of the III Reich.
Although all other parties continue to exclude any coalition with AFD, most analysts do not disagree with Bertrams’ view of a CDU/CSU eating from the far right-starting with the conservative electoral program, namely, who It includes proposals such as mass deportations and the end of asylum assignment at German borders.
It was precisely for migration and asylum reasons that, less than a month from going to the polls, Joep Bertars’s satirical cartoon began to outline. In an unprecedented step in decades, which in practice translated the fall of ‘Brandmauer’ erected in the postii war to keep the far right out of power in Germany to approve two non-attachment motions in Bundestag.
In the aftermath of the vote, several German cities have seen protests of thousands, but the sound popular condemnation of the stance of conservatives did not translate into changes in. As until then, the CDU reaches election day with an average of 30% of voting intentions, against 22% for AFD and 16% for the Olaf Scholz Social Democratic Party (SPD), clearly one of the parties that should be more punished today at the polls.
Angela Merkel, Arquirrival of Friedrich Merz inside the CDU, which led Germany between 2005 and 2021, may have abandoned power four years ago, but no one has doubts that the Scholz Chancellery was a mere continuation of yours. If something is certain, these elections mark the end of an era and, given the size of the country and the weight of its economy on the European continent, this is also true for the rest of the European Union – what happens in Berlin will not stay in Berlin ..
The traffic light coalition that collapsed at the end of 2024 between the Olaf Scholz SPD (to the center), the green of Robert Habeck (left) and the FDP of Christian Lindner (right), was Germany’s first tripartite in over 60 years (Markus Schreiber/AP)
Electoral results are likely to inaugurate intense weeks of negotiations that, at the limit, may lead to new legislative elections. This is, then, what can happen, based on the different arithmetic variables:
First, the rules
Federal elections to Bundestag, the German Parliament, occur every four years. Initially, this year’s were scheduled for September 28, but the collapse of the so-called traffic light coalition-between the Scholz SPD, the FDP’s green and liberals-the US presidential, dictated them to be anticipated.
Can vote all citizens with 18 or older, and each voter is entitled to two votes: the First voicefirst vote, serves to directly elect the representative of his electoral circle (out of a total of 299 in the country); the Second voiceaccording to vote, goes to the list of the political party that wants to represent it in its state (out of a total of 16 that make up the federal Germany). Any party that wins more than 5% of the second vote has a guaranteed entry into Bundestag, with state lists to alumate the composition of the respective parliamentary bench.
With recent changes to the electoral rules, Bundestag was no longer 733 seats and was composed of 630, a reduction of over 100 seats. One of the old rules was, however, maintained: if a party fails the minimum threshold of 5% votes, but being able to stay first in at least three of the 299 electoral circles, elect deputies to the Federal Parliament.
At this time, one of the big doubts is whether the FDP liberals, considered as those responsible for the fall of the previous government coalition, will be able to meet these criteria and ensure the election of deputies. The polls indicate that. There are also doubts about other smaller parties, whose entry or not in Bundestag will dictate, to a large extent, the tone of negotiations for the future German coalition.
“The composition of the next government largely depends on the parties that can exceed the 5%bar, something that is currently uncertain for Die Linke [A Esquerda]the Sara Wagenknecht Alliance [BSW] And the FDP, “explains political scientist Etienne Hanelt to CNN.” The numbers reached by each will be important for the sharing of the parties’ places in the next Bundestag. “
Based on the polls at the closing date of this article, the German analyst anticipates as more likely a CDU/CSU coalition with the SPD or, secondly, between CDU/CSU and Greens, and “the first option is more consistent in terms of internal policy and the second in terms of foreign policy and security. “
On the day Scholz fired Lindner from the position of Finance Minister, hours after Trump won the US presidential, analyst Sophie Pornschlegel told CNN that the widespread feeling in Germany is that FDP liberals were the biggest responsible by the fall of the “dysfunctional coalition”; “They spent months blocking everything without wanting to achieve any commitment,” and now they can be punished at the polls (EPA)
Groko: CDU + SPD
The so-called Gross Koalition-Great Coalition, or Groko-is one of Germany’s most famous government constellations, integrating CDU/CSU conservatives and SPD social democrats: since 1949, there have been four grokos, three of them under Angela’s leadership Merkel. The point is that, unlike earlier scenarios, conservatives have been soaked much more to the right to Merz’s rudder, which makes the center-left commitments more challenging.
For the current CDU leader, there is a man who has “shown impressively” how things must be negotiated in Groko: Boris Rhein, the current Prime Minister of the State of Hesse, who is part of the party’s ‘Merzian’ wing . When he won the regional elections in 2023, Rhein negotiated with the SPD and the green, eventually choosing to work with the SPD for being a more “flexible and conciliatory” partner.
In the ultimate weeks before the federal elections, Merz often referred to the Hesse regional government as a following model-even though, when asked whether he prefers to collide with the SPD or the greens, he replied that “the after situation -Eletoral won’t be easy. ” Experts anticipate that SPD will be more flexible than green also at national level, especially with regard to migrations and asylum, Merz flag and an area in which social democrats themselves, particularly in the last year of governance.
If the electoral results point to a new Groko, it is likely to watch important movements within the SPD itself, because Olaf Scholz, the exit chancellor, has already excluded the hypothesis of integrating a Merz government. On the contrary, the Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, who many wanted as in these elections, and the party collide, Lars Klingbeil, should gain great relevance.
One published in November showed that a majority of the electorate preferably gave a Chancellor Boris Pistorius, current Minister of Defense under Scholz and likely protagonist of the next Chancellery Merz, if he joins the SPD (Getty Images)
Kiwi: CDU + Green
There are three German states currently governed by coalitions between the CDU and the green, referred to as Kiwi coalitions. There are several areas, especially foreign policy and defense expenses, in which their proposals overlap, as well as criticism of Chancellor Scholz for not being more decisive in supporting Ukraine. Still, there are several others where the two parties are anything but aligned, especially with regard to migrations and asylum.
Even before Merz overthrows ‘Brandmauer’ with the motions that led to votes in Parliament in late January, the proposals of the CDU electoral program had already generated waves among the Greens, which classify from illegal measures such as the closing of borders with others Nine European countries, something the likely future chancellor promises to implement on the first day of his term. In addition, the green disagree with various CDU proposals related to.
In addition to the quarrels, there is Markus Söder, the charismatic leader of CSU, CDU’s gene party in Bavaria, who has been to a federal alliance with the greens. This has fueled the speculation that Merz could, in fact, follow Rhein’s example and use the environmental party as a lever to force the SPD to give in some points in order to integrate the next German government.
Robert Haback’s party is aligned with Merz’s CDU at various points, such as foreign policy and defense, but very misaligned in others, such as migrations and environment (AP)
Germany or Kenya?
Scholz’s traffic light coalition has headed since 2021 and fell because of quarrels with liberals, especially in view of the unavailability of the FDP to increase the ceiling of public debt and, therefore, was Germany’s first tripartite government in over 60 years .
Over the eight decades of the post-wari, the coalitions between two parties have been much more common, but the growing political fragmentation and the rise of popularity of several smaller parties, such as AFD and the Far-left BSW, founded A year ago by a communist dissident, they open their way to new types of agreements.
If the green, the FDP and the left can gain seats in Bundestag, a tripartisan alliance will be virtually impossible to avoid. In this case, and if the polls have not fled much to the real voting trends of the German electorate, the CDU faces two great options: the so -called German coalition, composed by CDU/CSU, the SPD and the FDP liberals or a less likely coalition Between CDU/CSU, SPD and Green, which the media baptize as Kenya coalition. (In both cases, the colors of the three parties correspond to the three colors of the German and Kenyan flags.)
Even if it proves unavoidable, the scenario of a tripartite coalition is little desired. The consensus among all parties is that there are so many political-ideological divisions that the new government would be, from the beginning, as fragile and prone to conflicts like the previous one. Like a few days ago: “To achieve the success you want, Germany’s probable next chancellor needs liberals and leftists to collapse and take fire.” The big question, especially in relation to Die Linke, is if Merz can tell that it is.
