Change reflects a slight improvement in economic expectations; GDPnow model did not take into account the forecast for foreign trade in gold
The Federal Reserve of Atlanta released new estimates for the Gross Dose Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025. According to the GDPnow model, the forecast was revised from -2.1% to -1.8% in terms of annualized and seasonally adjusted rate. This change reflects a slight improvement in economic expectations. One of the points highlighted in the report is the increase in private domestic investment, which went from 7.2% to 9.1% in the first quarter.
This growth suggests a partial recovery in one of the main components of GDP, although the overall panorama still points to an economic contraction. It is important to note that the GDPnow model update did not take into account the forecast for foreign trade. This omission is due to the silence period of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which prevents the disclosure of sensitive information before the meetings.
The next model update, which will include new foreign trade information, is scheduled to occur after the Blackout ending, on March 26
*Report produced with the aid of AI
Posted by Fernando Dias
