Two states, separated by almost 1,600 kilometers, will provide the best evidence so far about whether President Donald Trump and his republican allies maintain robust support or face a growing reaction led by a reenergized Democratic party.
In Wisconsin, a race of nearly $ 100 million for control of the state’s Supreme Court has become an important conflict over the state’s direction into a referendum on Elon Musk’s superdimened role in national politics.
In Florida, one of the two special chair elections of the Chamber of Representatives, which are deeply republican, suddenly seems very tight to the comfort of the Republicans. Democrats, while still expecting to lose, are closely watching the margins in search of signs that their party is on the rise.
Here are five great questions as we approach Tuesday’s elections.
Are the millions of Elon Musk worth it?
Musk’s support for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin, has been a full -service political operation.
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The billionaire and groups linked to him spent more than $ 25 million, funding a powerful basic campaign. An army of mobilizers for $ 25 per hour knocked on the door of Trump’s voters, and brilliant correspondence pallets assured Republicans that Schimel is an ally of Trump. A non -profit conservative organization with musk ties helped flood radio waves with ads attacking liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, as weak about crime. And Musk’s donation includes $ 3 million to the Wisconsin Republican Party, which channeled the money to help Schimel.
This was all before Musk spoke for almost two hours at a Schimel rally on Sunday night in Green Bay.
If Musk’s extraordinary effort is successful, Wisconsin’s Republicans will be hopeful for favorable decisions of a conservative-controlled court in cases of abortion rights, access to vote and the power of the state’s republican legislature.
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However, it is possible that the generosity of Musk will come at a political cost to Schimel. Research shows that Musk is as unpopular among Wisconsin’s democrats as Trump, but without the same residual loyalty as republicans. Democrats shaped Crawford’s campaign around the idea that she is fighting the richest person in the world.
“We are in unknown territory, where we now have the richest man in the world trying to buy our election and the question is: can he do that?” Said Sarah Godlewski, Wisconsin’s Democratic Secretary of State.
In his closing rally on Monday night in Madison, Crawford criticized Musk for appearing in his rally using the state-of-the-art yellow foam hat.
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“Let me talk about my opponent, Elon Musk,” she said. “I saw a picture of him yesterday with a cheese hat. First time he’s in Wisconsin, he didn’t get the right to wear a cheese hat.”
Does democratic energy arrived finally?
Democrats’ hopes began to rise slowly and with caution.
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The party celebrated the conquest of state legislative chairs controlled by Republicans in recent special elections in Iowa and Pennsylvania. And on Saturday, Louisiana voters rejected four proposals of constitutional amendments supported by Governor Jeff Landry, a Republican, who would have reformulated parts of state tax codes and hardened penalties for youth offenders.
But none of these elections were as expensive or prominent as Tuesday’s competitions, so the question of whether they were isolated surprises or a thinner resurgence of democrats will be determined by what happens in Wisconsin and, to a lesser extent, Florida.
A Crawford’s victory, a mild -tempered jurist, could drive a new resistance against Trump, similar to Jon Ossoff in April 2017. Although Ossoff, now a senator of Georgia, lost what was then the most expensive chamber race, he became a fundraising phenomenon and demonstrated several other candidates a way to viability against the first Era Trump.
Wisconsin Democrats put Musk at the center of their race communication operations: to ensure that voters understood, they called a state tour of “The People Against Elon Musk.” Fearing to be overshadowed by the millions of musk, Democrats helped Crawford break backs collection records.
“We are discovering the way to follow,” said state deputy Greta Neubauer, a Racine Democrat who is the leader of the minority in his House.
Are democrats really competitive in Florida?
The House Republicans hoped that mostly tight to grow easily in two seats on Tuesday, in the elections to replace members of Congress that Trump chose last year to join his office.
One, Michael Waltz, became the National Security Counselor, while the second, Matt Gaetz, resigned to his seat and then removed from consideration as an attorney general amid ethical investigation and republican opposition.
Trump endorsed Jimmy Patronis, the state’s financial controller, to replace Gaetz in the Panhandle region, and state senator Randy Fine to replace Waltz in a Northeast district that includes the center of Nascar in Daytona Beach.
But Fine’s Democratic opponent Josh Weil raised much more than him, leading to public warnings about the chances of Fine of a comfortable victory in a district that Trump won for 30 percentage points. Although Republicans are still expected to prevail, both parties are closely watching the margin of Vitória.
How much of attendance the $ 100 million buy?
The last race for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin two years ago cost about $ 56 million, becoming the most expensive judicial election in American history.
This election attracted 1.8 million voters, or about 56% of state participation in the 2020 presidential election – a high percentage for a state court race.
Now, with spending approaching $ 100 million, a key factor in the result is the higher the participation.
America Votes, a group of active democratic voter mobilization in the state, estimates that just over 2 million Wisconsin inhabitants will vote, an increase that can reflect both the growing interest of Democrats and a successful republican attendance operation of Musk. If this number of Wisconsin inhabitants votes, the participation will be about 60% of the state’s participation last November.
Is musk the future of our elections?
Musk has almost unlimited wealth, ears of the president and comprehensive power in Washington.
If it can unilaterally change a state judicial race, how can it get involved in other elections of the country?
A Wisconsin victory could encourage Musk to become even more aggressive in investing their billions in Republican candidates this year and in the 2026 middle term elections. This could make conservative candidates even more subordinate to Trump if their main financial benefactor continues to act from the White House.
All of this happens while Musk is in a position to benefit financially from the candidates he supported with his money and influence. Tesla, the electric vehicle company that Musk controls, has a case against Wisconsin pending in state courts, and Trump made a point of promoting the billionaire products from the White House.
The defeat for conservatives, of course, would not mean that Musk would stop spending on elections. But he would prove to the Democrats that he is defeatable with enough money and base energy.
Still, while Democrats can see Musk as a figure that animates their base and superves the collection of liberal funds, this is much easier for them to do when Wisconsin is the country’s main race and a focus of national attention.
If Musk was funding dozens of Trump -allied candidates for governor, Senate and Congress across the country next year, it could be a much harder proposal to match their financial power with the same degree of popular enthusiasm when national attention is more diffuse.
