In less than two months, since President Donald Trump spoke for the first time in the adoption of “reciprocal tariffs” to the US business partners, Brazil has left the “Dirty 15” list for the “Clean Three” group.
In free translation: Brazil was initially among 15 countries seen by the White House as “ugly, dirty and evil” – with high rates, non -tariff barriers, exchange rate manipulation, unfair trade practices.
After a lot of diplomatic effort, he ended up in the whole of the three “clean and smelling” – countries with relevant markets and with whom the United States maintains robust surpluses in the trade of goods and services.
In addition to Brazil, the United Kingdom and Australia are part of the team. All ended up being – the smallest percentage announced by Trump and well below the applied on European Union, China and most Asians.
What has changed since there? In the view of government sources and the private sector heard by the CNN, In reserved, there were three major movements in this period.
1) The first was the opening of virtually nonexistent dialogue channels until early March, when Vice President Geraldo Alckmin talked by telephone with United States Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Until then, the channels were obstructed. There were no contacts in the first echelon or among the technical teams of government. From then on, a dynamic was created.
Chancellor Mauro Vieira and the head of USTR (White House Commercial Representation Office), Jamieson Greer, established a line of communication. There were developments for the second echelon, which began to interact.
Until Wednesday (2), the “Liberation Day”, there was no sign that the White House would slow down the tariffs directed to Brazil. The climate in Brasilia was of pessimism.
But they all stressed: the technical arguments had been presented in detail for the various decision -making instances of the US government. The opportunity he had missed in January and February was seized in March.
2) The weight of the private sector and corporate alliances was shown. Much of bilateral trade is intrafirm, ie the subsidiary of an American company installed in Brazil exports to its matrix in the United States.
In the process opened by USTR to listen to interested in the new commercial policy of the White House, AMcham Brazil was present.
The Brazilian section of the American Chamber of Commerce, larger among 114 existing worldwide, sent a letter to the White House defending the “institutionalized and structured dialogue” between the two countries.
Arguments presented by AMCHAM: Brazil is responsible for the third largest surplus in the United States in the trade of goods with G20 economies; represents the fifth largest market for exports of services in the country; and American multinationals have sent $ 54 billion to profits and dividends to their matrices in the last ten years.
In short: additional rates to Brazilian products would hurt their own companies in the United States installed here.
The exploration of corporate alliances continues. In May, an entourage of Brazilian businessmen will board Washington to find leaders from the US private sector. It is an attempt to “exhaust dialogue”, as the president of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), Ricardo Alban, responsible for the organization.
3) Without fuss and no press release, ambassador Mauricio Lyrio was last week in Washington. Lyrio is the Secretary of Economic and Financial Affairs of Itamaraty, the main Brazilian negotiator in commercial issues, Sherpa do G20 and BRICS.
He had a marathon of meetings in which he could reinforce, in detail, the Brazilian arguments. Passed US Chamber of Commerce, the largest business entity in the United States, and the Department of Commerce. And he had two especially important meetings.
One, in the White House, was with Nels Nordquist, the American Sherpa for the G20, Trump advisor to economic policy and deputy director of the National Economic Council.
Another was with the president of the Ways and Means Committee of the Chamber of Representatives, Jason Smith, a Missouri Republican. Little by comparing, it would be the equivalent to the chairman of the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) in Brazil, a collegiate where any relevant project is processed. For the position and the party, Smith has free traffic in the US government.
The meetings served to emphasize the message that Brazil has been part of the solution, not the US commercial problem, with the following surpluses maintained by the country. There may be one or another punctual complaint, but the relationship is favorable to Americans. That is, Brazil is part of “Clean Three” and not “Dirty 15”, insisted Lyrio.
It worked – without President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and Trump never spoke. The 10% rate was the same applied to Javier Milei’s Argentina (Trump’s friend) and Israel (preferred partner).
The mood of widespread pessimism in Brasilia was replaced by a feeling of relief between the Brazilian authorities and in the private sector.
A diplomat summed up as follows on Wednesday night (2): it is never good to take a “beating” in the head, in reference to the 10% rate announced by Trump to Brazil, but “edged” in dozens of other countries hurt much more.
In the end, some entrepreneurs commented even exaggeratedly, the relative competitiveness of Brazilian industrial products improved in the US market, given the much greater increase in European, Chinese, Japanese competitors.
Negotiation
The Brazilian Government evaluates that there will be space, from now on, to negotiate rates imposed by the White House in Brazilian exports of products to the United States.
An example of this is the meeting scheduled between Brazilian and American negotiators scheduled to take place next week. The meeting demonstrates that the channel is still open for countries to continue the negotiations.
The evaluation of these sources is that there is a change in the course of the world commercial system model, with commercial multilateralism giving way to a system that revolves around the United States- in which the country negotiates bilaterally with peers.
