Article originally in the Financial Times. Other articles .
Arthur McFarlane is a research assistant at the Oxford School of Global and Territorial Studies
According to an officer of the Russian secret service that has run, Vladimir Putin does not use the Internet. He doesn’t even have a smartphone. Ten years ago, he forced people from his nearest circle to use writing machines. In this context, it should not be surprising that Russia is so lagging behind in the field of artificial intelligence. Global sanctions also prevented him from developing the home sector AI.
Radio Free Europe recently reported that the Sberbank – Russian giant in the field of financial services, the majority owner of which is the state – has proven only 9,000 graphics processors since February 2022, when Russia began a full -fledged military invasion of Ukraine. Microsoft bought them almost 500,000 last year.
No chips, no progress in the war
Russia has new business partners, but not those who have access to a large number of modern semiconductors. The problem is further worse by the fact that since 2022 it has lost approximately ten percent of its workforce in the technology workforce as a result of emigration.
As a result of these factors, Russia, according to the global index of AI, is Tortoise Media at the 31st place in the world in the capacity of artificial intelligence. It was placed behind every major economy and even for small countries such as Portugal, Norway, Ireland and Luxembourg.
Russia has a strong motivation to increase its capacities. If Putin wants to expand online censorship to artificial intelligence, it will need even more computing, which means more chips. It will also need access to more advanced chips, as artificial intelligence changes the nature of the war guidance.
Scientific and technological advances are increasingly associated with calculating technology, which means that access to chips will be a key strategic factor for the army in just a few years, unless it is anymore. No chips, no calculations; No calculations, no progress in defense technology.
Chips must not be on the table
Leading personalities in the field of artificial intelligence regularly pronounce much more radical claims. Some argue that we are on the threshold of revolution in the field of autonomous weapon systems. If this is true, then Russia will lack the funds for the development of the 21st century army. And if the war against Ukraine is freezing for several years, the difference in the competences of the European armies and the Russian one could be enlarged.
For Russia’s rivals, there is a space for the deterrent strategy through rejection. If we made it impossible for Russia to access the advanced chips needed for artificial intelligence, we could deny him a key strategic means and discourage him from future aggression.
To make this reality, the Allies of Ukraine must convince Trump’s government to withdraw chips from the table in any negotiations between Russia and the United States. A form of mitigation of sanctions is probably necessary, but the sanctions on semiconductors must remain in force.
Second, the Allies of Ukraine should support further emigration from the Russian technology sector. Visa systems could be introduced to facilitate the departure of graduates with artificial intelligence from Russia to the West.
The advantage of the delay
Finally, the direction of Russia in the field of artificial intelligence should be informed antiputin’s tuned individuals within the Russian regime. If the people from Putin’s surroundings can convince the seismic extent of his disgrace in the AI area, dissatisfaction could increase, perhaps to the point of destabilization.
There are several reasons why this might not be possible. As the Chinese cheap AI model Deepseek-V3 has shown, there may be an advantage of delayed in artificial intelligence. The top capabilities can be later replicated with less computing. If Russia can put together more chips and effectively use its limited resources, it could be enough.
There are also indications that the regime is trying to cope with its technological lag: Sberbank plans to jointly research artificial intelligence with China and 68-year-old Yuri Borisov has recently been dismissed as the head of the Russian Space Agency Roskosmos. It was replaced by 39-year-old Dmitry Bakanov, which could indicate the advent of the younger, technically proficient generation under the regime.
Has cards in his hands, he misses the chips
The bigger problem of Russia’s deterrent strategy based on artificial intelligence chips is that no one knows what the deterrent will look like in a few years. To what extent will Russia be able to face lack of artificial intelligence through conventional or nuclear forces?
Until now, it has used massive physical strength to advance to Ukraine and has discouraged Western interventions by nuclear threats. Will this strategy work in the era of artificial intelligence? Maybe. However, it is also possible that AI will allow us to overcome Russian nuclear threats with the new ability of the first blow.
In short, Russia uses the tactics of the 20th century to achieve the target of the 19th century, but the 21st century passes it. If artificial intelligence becomes a strategic means, the chances of Russia become a modern power will fall. In Ukraine, Putin has cards in his hands, but he lacks chips. Or better said chips.
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