Relations between countries, global production chains and, in general, the dynamics of the world economy: “the game is changed” with the tariffs presented by Donald Trump on Wednesday (2), according to experts heard by WW.
For the medium and long term, the possibility of the United States and the world is encompassed by a recession is discussed. But in the short term, the Republican’s trade policy is already reverberated: “[as tarifas] will fundamentally change the international trade system ”,.
And it is in this sense that countries rearranges their connections that should go to the reaction of the world to tariffs, they pointed to WW Christopher Garman, executive director of Eurasia Group, and Rubens Barbosa, former Washington-Band and President of the Institute of International Relations and Foreign Trade (Irice).
Each country will defend its interest, and to defend interest has to have a whole vision. Brazil cannot react without knowing the trend
Rubens Barbosa
The former inmate looks at Asia, where, according to him, the unimaginable is happening: Japan, China and South Korea-historically separated countries-are seeking to approach politically and economically to strengthen themselves before Trump’s tariffs.
With reciprocal tariffs announced by the US President ,.
And for Brazil ,? “Very early, it will have to wait for the reaction of the main partners. […] Brazil cannot react immediately, react ideologically, speak of retaliation. You have to negotiate, ”ponders Barbosa.
“From the point of view of Brazilian foreign trade, it needs to reevaluate Mercosur, some rates and some measures [protecionistas não tarifárias] To negotiate, ”he points out.
For the president of Irice, it is still necessary for Brazil to think strategically compared to Latin America, seeking to build regional chains of value in its zone of influence.
Garman sees this as the trend going forward, the regions seek to approach each other.
“Whether politically or on the commercial side, we will have the world starting to relate more in a context in which the United States lift barriers and are no longer seen as reliable,” he noted.
In this rearrangement of dynamics, Barbosa says that in his career as an ambassador “I have never seen such a situation.”
Its conclusion is Trump’s The Path chosen by the country’s economic and political integrity. Looking at a retrospective, the former inmate wonders if the current scenario approaches a historical pattern.
“In history, the empires, most of the time, have destroyed themselves for internal reasons. […] I don’t know if we are seeing the beginning of this in American society, ”he concludes.
Relief
Although the executive director of Eurasia Group saw a much worse announcement than the imagined for the world, he agrees that Brazil ended up “going well in the photo”.
In the end, Garman points out that the account that Trump’s office made it was much simpler than promised – to take into consideration medium tariffs, non -tariff barriers and the like.
Thus, considering only the trade balance, Brazil has managed to go out well in the picture of Trump and, consequently, to be received with a milder rate than expected.
For Rubens Barbosa, Brazil “has reason to be relieved”.
