For 58% of voters from SP, Tarcisio should try to reelection

Datafolha survey released on the night of Thursday (10.ab.2025) in the newspaper shows that most voters in the state of São Paulo think that the governor (Republicans) should try to reelection by 2026.

According to the survey, the voters replied that Tarcisio:

• should compete for reelection to the government of São Paulo – 58%;
• should compete for the election for the Presidency of the Republic – 30%;
• They don’t know – 12%.

Datafolha heard 1,500 people in person 16 years or over in 81 municipalities of São Paulo. The survey was conducted from April 1st to 3rd and the error margin is 3 percentage points for more or less.

Tarcisio is a political godson of (PL) and was his infrastructure minister. Although Bolsonaro is, according to the decision of the (Superior Electoral Court), the governor of São Paulo publicly defends the former president as a candidate for the Planalto in 2026. According to the electoral law, Tarcisio has until April 2026 to decide whether or not the presidency will run.

The opinion that Tarcisio should try to reelection instead of running for the presidency is majority among both the president’s (PT) and Bolsonaro’s voters. In this case, the survey error margin is 5 percentage points for more or less.

Among those who declare themselves petistas, the voters responded that Tarcisio:

• should compete for reelection to the government of São Paulo – 58%;
• should compete for the election for the Presidency of the Republic – 28%.

Among those who declare themselves Bolsonarists, the voters responded that Tarcisio:

• should compete for reelection to the government of São Paulo – 61%;
• should compete for the election for the Presidency of the Republic – 32%.

The institute questioned voters about which candidate think Tarcisio should support a case decide not to run for reelection to the São Paulo government. The margin of error is 3 percentage points for more or less.

According to the stimulated research (when the voter should choose from one of the names indicated in the questionnaire), respondents say Tarcisio should support:

• Pablo Marçal (PRTB) – 23%;
• Ricardo Nunes (MDB) – 22%;
• Gilberto Kassab (PSD) – 10%;
• Rodrigo Manga (Republicans) – 7%;
• Ricardo Salles (New) – 7%;
• Guilherme Derrite (PP) – 6%;
• André do Prado (PL) – 3%;
• Other answers – 0%;
• none – 12%;
• They don’t know – 11%.

Tarcísio leads with clearance

In 2 scenarios tested by the Folha Group Institute, Tarcísio would lead the dispute for the São Paulo government if the elections were today. The research reflects the evaluation of your government ,.

According to the stimulated research, whose margin of error is 3 percentage points for more or less, with the Vice President of the Republic, (PSB), the electoral scenario would be as follows:

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 41%;
• Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) – 25%;
• Pablo Marçal (PRTB) – 15%;
• Alexandre Padilha (PT) – 6%;
• Ricardo Salles (New) – 4%;
• White/null/None – 9%;
• don’t know – 1%.

Already in a scenario where the PSB candidate is the minister of entrepreneurship, instead of Alckmin, Tarcisio would open an even greater advantage over the 2nd place:

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 47%;
• Pablo Marçal (PRTB) – 16%;
• Márcio França (PSB) – 11%;
• Alexandre Padilha (PT) – 6%;
• Ricardo Salles (New) – 4%;
• White/null/none – 14%;
• don’t know – 2%.

Datafolha also tested a scenario without Tarcisio. In this case the vice president leads the voting intentions of the Paulistas to the State Government:

• Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) – 29%;
• Pablo Marçal (PRTB) – 20%;
• Ricardo Nunes (MDB) – 12%;
• Rodrigo Manga (Republicans) – 5%;
• Alexandre Padilha (PT) – 5%;
• Ricardo Salles (New) – 4%;
• Guilherme Derrite (PP) – 3%;
• Gilberto Kassab (PSD) – 3%;
• André do Prado (PL) – 1%;
• White/null/none – 15%;
• don’t know – 3%.