BRASILIA, DF (Folhapress) – Last week, Elon Musk indicated for the first time that his department of government efficiency (Doge) was short of his goal.
He had previously said that his powerful budget cutting team could reduce the federal funds of next fiscal year by $ 1 trillion, and do it until September 30, the end of the current fiscal year. Instead, at a cabinet meeting on Thursday (10), Musk said he expected the group to save about $ 150 billion, 85% less than its goal.
Even this value can be too high, according to an analysis of The New York Times about Doge’s allegations.
This is because, when the musk group accounts for the economy it has managed to do so far, it inflates its progress by including billions of dollars, accounts that are not foreseen for next fiscal year, and makes assumptions about spending that may not occur.
One of the group’s biggest allegations involves the cancellation of a contract that did not exist. Although the government says that it had only requested proposals in this case and had not decided on a supplier or price, the musk group ignored this uncertainty and attributed to itself a large and very specific credit value for canceling it.
He said he had saved exactly $ 318,310,328.30.
The doge has now triggered mass layoffs throughout the government and drastic cuts in humanitarian aid around the world. Musk justified these interruptions with two promises: that the group would be transparent and that would reach budget cuts that others considered impossible.
Now, seeing the group reduce their goals and inflate their progress, some of their allies have been doubtful on both.
“They are just running without leaving the place, citing in many cases exaggerated or false economy,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget policy and rights at the Cato Institute Libertarian. “The most frustrating is that we agree with their goals. But we are watching them fail to reach them.”
Musk’s group did not answer questions about their allegations sent via X, their social media platform. The billionaire previously acknowledged that the group could make mistakes, but said they would be corrected.
The White House press office defended the team, saying it had compiled “massive achievements”, but refused to address specific cases in which the group seemed to have inflated their work.
Musk really promised an even greater reduction last year. When he was Donald Trump’s most prominent supporter in the campaign, he said he could cut $ 2 trillion from a federal budget of about $ 7 trillion. After Trump was elected and Musk’s group began his work, the goal was reduced to $ 1 trillion.
Even after the billionaire comments at Thursday’s cabinet meeting, a White House employee indicated that this goal had not changed.
Budget analysts were deeply skeptical about these allegations, saying that it would be difficult to cut either without further interrupting government services or drastically altering popular benefit programs such as Medicare and Social Security.
Musk’s group has provided an online range book from its budget cuts, which calls “receipt wall”. The site was last updated on Tuesday (8), to show an “estimated economy” of $ 150 billion.
The Rago book is full of omissions and failures.
While Musk said on Thursday that his group would save $ 150 billion only in the 2026 fiscal year, the site does not explicitly say when its economies would be made. The site also does not provide identifiable details about $ 92 billion alleged economies, which represents more than 60% of the total.
The rest of the saved expenses is detailed and attributed to cancellations of specific federal subsidies, contracts or offices. But these detailed listings were tormented by data errors, which inflamed information in billions of dollars.
Musk’s group excluded some of its original errors, such as entrances that told the same amounts saved three times, another that confused “billion” with “million”, and items that claimed credit for canceling contracts that ended when George W. Bush was president.
Still, some expensive errors remain.
The second largest economy the group lists on its site comes from a canceled contract of IRS (equivalent to the IRS) that Doge says it represents an economy of $ 1.9 billion. But the contract cited was canceled when Joe Biden was president.
The third largest economy the group claims to have made from a canceled concession to a non -profit organization of vaccine. Musk’s group says this saved $ 1.75 billion. But the non -profit organization said that it was actually paid in full, that is, there was no economy.
Doge also claimed credit for canceling a contract that was not a contract. It involved a proposal request that the personnel management office had published, seeking offers to help with human resources work.
By announcing these requests, government agencies describe the work they want to do. Contractors send proposals, with a plan and a price. The government can choose a supplier, or several. Even after that, it often negotiates with them to reduce the price below their original offers.
Details about this specific request were scarce: Musk’s group provided a tracking number for the order, 47QFEA24k0008. But the New York Times has not been able to find this number in previous government request databases. The personnel management office refused to disclose the order, or to say how much planned to spend on the contract, nor would the office say when it planned to choose a contractor.
Despite this uncertainty, Musk calculated the economies involved in this cancellation to the penny level. (Subsequently, he rounded the claim for an exact amount: US $ 318,310,328)
“Trash,” said Steven Schooner, a teacher who studies federal contracts at George Washington University.
He said it was too early to know for sure what the government would spend -specially in the year Musk had aimed to save money. What if bidders competed to reduce the price? What if a loser bidder protested, and then everything was canceled?
“You don’t know what will happen,” said Schooner. “It’s Beast.”
