Research points to victory for the liberals of Carry, but the conservatives of Poilievre follow competitive
Canada This Monday (28.br.2025) their parliamentary elections, with 343 seats in dispute in the Chamber of the Common. The liberal party, led byit must win 185 seats – enough to form a government with the majority, according to final survey by YouGov, On Friday (25.abr).
The survey projects 135 chairs for the conservative party, led by . The Bloc Quebécois party appears with 18 seats, the NDP (new democratic party) of Jagmeet Singh with 3 and the green party with 2 seats.
The ballot boxes will be opened at 10am (Brasília time) and the first results are expected at dawn on Tuesday (29.abr).
The party that wins most seats elects the new prime minister. The main candidates for the position are:
Mark Carney (Liberal Party)
Current Prime Minister, Carney of on January 6. For the party, it took place after the ex-prize, who had commanded the country since 2015 and had faced a drop in popularity and internal pressures.
Less than a week after taking command of the center-left party, Carney already starred in a turnaround in the electoral scenario, previously favorable for conservatives. A Leger agency survey, released on March 12, showed a draw between the two subtitles.
The issues that made Trudeau unpopular, such as immigration and the real estate crisis, lost protagonism in the face of the tariffs imposed by the government of (Republican Party) to Canadian imports.
On March 23, Carnery justifying the need for a strong and stable government to deal with the coming from the United States.
Its main they are:
- Housing: Support the construction of more affordable housing with public-private partnerships and innovations in the construction industry;
- Environment: Replace carbon tax with ecological incentives such as the purchase of electric vehicles;
- Trade: diversify exports to reduce US dependence;
- Health: Promote digital health system reform to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
Who is Mark Carnery
was born in Fort Smith, northwest of the country and was created in Edmonton, in the province of Alberta. He is married to Diana Fox Carney and has 4 daughters. Economist graduated from Harvard University and a doctorate in Oxford, he began his career in finance before joining the country’s public service.
From 2008 to 2013, the economist headed the Central Bank of Canada. In 2013, he assumed the Central Bank of England and was in office until 2020. Carnery acted as UN special envoy for climate action and finance in 2019. In 2020, he was president and head of investments at Brookfield Asset Management until he resigned in January 2025 to enter the Canadian electoral race.
Stone (Conservative Party)
Opposition leader since 2022, Poilievre until the entry of Carry into the liberal party and Trump’s return to US presidency.
In the week before Carry’s victory, the conservative party had 43% of voting intentions, while liberal totaled 30%.
In addition to the renunciation of Trudeau, the deterioration of relations between Canada and the United States may have influenced the change of opinion of the Canadian.
Poilievre defends a minor state, economic freedom and a “Freedom Revolution” from Canada. Since assuming the party’s leadership, it has been betting on economic and criticism of the liberal party.
Its main they are:
- Housing: accelerate the construction of housing with less regulation and performance goals for municipalities;
- Environment: Review environmental regulations to accelerate energy projects and reduce carbon tax;
- Internal Trade: Increase trade between provinces and simplify professional licensing;
- Health: Decentralize health policies, giving more autonomy to the provinces.
Who is Pierre Poilievre
presents itself as a longtime conservative and defender of the free market and “People’s responsibility for their own future”. Born in Calgary, in Alberta province, he has a degree in international relations from the University of Calgary. He is married and has 2 children.
He entered politics at the age of 25 in 2004, when he was elected for the first time to the Chamber of the Common. As a deputy, he represented the district of Nepean-Carleton, in Ontario. From 2006 to 2013 also held positions of parliamentary secretary under administration of the Premier Stephen Harper (2006-2015). Then, in 2015, he served as Minister of Employment and Social Development.
From 2017 to 2021, Poilievre held the position of Minister Sombra – administered by the opposition to oversee the performance of the holder minister of finance. Briefly also acted as a shadow minister of jobs and industry. The peak came in 2022, when the conservative party leader and opposition leader was elected.
