US Wall Street Journal Diary speaks of overpriced GDP and inaccurate data on the unemployment rate
The US newspaper published a report by suggesting that the China government would be manipulating data to mask the country’s economic reality. The article points out that indices such as GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product), unemployment between young people, real estate data and exports were no longer disclosed or used non -transparent methodologies.
The diary cites as examples calculations that US financial institutions have adopted since 2023 to extract data from the Asian country. According to the report, Bank Goldman Sachs began crossing home spending data and imports from other sources other than the government to investigate the advancement of Chinese GDP. The result was a growth of 3.7% in 2024. China’s official data in the period, reaching the country’s goals.
The US publication cites Chinese characters that would have shown suspicion about official data. In December, SDIC Securities Economist Gao Shanwen – China’s financial services company – said at a Washington conference that the country’s economic growth may have been close to 2% in recent years and that it was not possible to know “The real number of the real growth of China”.
Another, from January 2025, says that the Chinese economist was banned from making new public statements “For an unspecified period”. GAO was not arrested or fired.
The article also reports that an economist from the University of Beijing suspects that unemployment data among young people is wrong. By 2023, official numbers indicated a 21.3% vacancy rate among the 16 to 24 -year -old Chinese. The economist said the actual number would be closer to 46.5%.
Read below indicators that the report mentions as suspects:
- Commence – Chinese government announced 5% growth in 2024. Goldman Sachs indicates a 3.7% advance using its own method. The Rhodium Group – New York -based research company – points to a 2.4% growth last year;
- Young unemployment – The rate was 5 months without disclosed. It was 21.5% and went back to 14.5%, with the Chinese government saying that 62 million young people who are studying cannot be considered, even if they are looking for a job;
- cremation – Data from cremated dead (most in the case of China) stopped being released by 2022;
- shoyu – The traditional soy sauce is widely consumed in China. Its production was an indicator of the economy. Stopped being released in May 2021;
- foreign investment – The two main Chinese scholarships have ceased to publish real -time data on foreign entries and exits in April 2024;
- real estate sector – The Chinese government has stopped publicizing data on housing real estate in the country in 2022.
