The president of Russia, Vladimir Putinhas reactivated a Diplomatic strategy that, far from looking for a peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine, it points to undercoverthey affirm analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), who warn that The Kremlin now tries to reach by diplomatic route what he has not achieved on the battlefield.
According to the ISW, Putin has raised the calls again Istanbul protocolswritten in April 2022, when Russian forces advanced towards kyiv. Although since then that advance was repelled, Moscow insists on imposing conditions “that are not a peace offer, but a recipe for surrender”as well as a drastic limitation of its sovereignty and defense capacity. These are the main demands:
- Waiver resignation. Ukraine had to completely abandon his aspiration to enter the Atlantic Alliance.
- Constitutional neutrality. A constitutional reform was required that guaranteed the permanent neutrality of the country, explicitly prohibiting the accession of military alliances, the signing of military cooperation agreements and the deployment in Ukrainian territory of foreign troops, military advisors or weapons systems provided by other countries.
- Drastic Army Reduction. A very restrictive numerical limit was imposed on the military capacities of Ukraine: a maximum of 85,000 soldiers, only 342 combat tanks and up to 519 artillery systems.
- Limited range of missiles. The Ukrainian missiles could not have a range of more than 40 kilometers, which would allow Russia to place troops and logistics systems near the border without risk of being attacked.
- International guarantors of the agreement. Russia proposed that the security of the agreement be guaranteed not only by international powers such as the United States, China, the United Kingdom and France, but also by the Russian Federation itself and Belarus.
- International Treaty Review. The guarantor countries should commit to annul any international treaty or agreement that contravenes the new permanent neutrality of Ukraine, including pacts that involve military support.
“It’s one Recipe for Ukraine to become a puppet state, unable to defend against a new Russian aggression“, insists the ISW report.
Putin’s diplomatic offensive occurs at a time of military stagnation. “Putin knows that nothing decisive can achieve on the battlefield”experts point out. Therefore, the Kremlin resorts to political pressures, propaganda and misinformation, trying to sow divisions between Ukraine, Europe and the United States.
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