After the 90s of the last century, the world undertook a new path: left behind the block policy of the Cold War, put the ideologies in the drawer, addressed a process of deep demilitarization and seed the economy, contacts and the so -called soft power or soft power– Relationships between states. That scenario does not exist today. The Great Recession of 2008-2012, plus the pandemic of Coronavirus and the current wars, from Gaza to Ukraine, have dynamited the previous trends of globalization, which is again governed by hard power, the hard power. Win the money, they earn weapons.
It is confirmed, referring to 2024, which assumes that there was already talk for years of years slowbalization (slowed globalization) and even deglobalization (Diplobalization), but nothing similar to what we have today, especially after the return to the presidency of the United States, which marks a turning point in planetary tendencies. The Republican makes clear of the word and work that he does not like the current order, in broad strokes that was born after the, and that has come to change it in favor of his interests.
“The technological consolidation of China, the material needs of the energy and digital transition, and the return of ideologies and the geographical issue as defining elements of external policies, have made that multilateral order to a world of geopolitical competence between states, nationalist boom and unilateralism, in which the external dependence is now seen as an element of vulnerability,” says the analysis of Manuel Gracia Santos and Blanca Gonz. Compare the evolution of the globalization process since 1990.
“Commercial protectionism is understood again as a foreign policy tool and is accompanied by national industrial policies and autonomy strategies with respect to the outside. In addition, the return of the war in Europe has re -reilitated international relations, reducing the attractiveness of the soft elements of external projection,”
Who commands here
As a general framework, the report detects a 1.4% setback in the overall presence of the 150 countries analyzed, mainly due to a contraction of the economic dimension, which is reduced by 3.5% compared to 2023. The reasons: “The strong reduction of energy exports and primary goods after the stabilization of international prices” and the contraction of the world trade of manufacturing. ” World Stock of Direct Foreign Investments (FDI) “, refines the text.
The military presence, on the contrary, “given the growth of the number of troops abroad, explained by the high deployment of Russia in Ukraine,” explains Elcano. “In comparative terms, a number higher than the US mobilized during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, so that the total number of troops deployed today in the world (almost 900,000 units) would be 1.3 times higher than 2005,” he adds. The trend also reaches the global south, not only to the north. It is planetary.
The soft dimension, on the other hand, although “recovers part of the dynamism of the period before the pandemic,” has stopped the evolution of past years. “The indicator that grows the most in the last year is tourism (27%), after the update of postpandymia data; followed by climate (6.2%), due to the increase in renewable energy generation capacities; and culture (5.6%), driven by exports of audiovisual services,” the study details.
There are realities that do not change, although they also have their oscillations. The main is that the United States remains the leading power, which even grows in global presence. China, on the other hand, despite being the second, loses ground in the analyzed year. Germany would follow him, at a good distance, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. The Top 5. After them, Russia, France, Canada, India and the Netherlands. Completed the Top 10.
The index reflects that Germany, United Kingdom -adlated by Japan, which was not fourth since the 90s, Canada, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland and Australia. By blocks, Asia stands out, which maintains or improves its data, with South Korea in the 11th position, which partially compensates for the retreat of Beijing.
Spain and Europe
Spain maintains the 13th position of a year ago, but the reading of its data is better in context, since it records in 2024 the second highest growth in global presence, only surpassed by the US, and the best throughout the European Union (EU). The truth is that the old continent shows varied trends, researchers say. “The United Kingdom Post-Brexit continues to lose economic presence, although it manages to recover the growth of its soft presence, without being sufficient to defend its position before the rise of Japan. France also loses a position before Russia, which increases exclusively by the military deployment in Ukraine. The Netherlands, on the other hand, experience a general decrease in all dimensions and loses its position before the rise of India, while Korea of the South Korea Already to Italy and Spain, “they indicate.
They point to “a loss in the main European locomotives – francia, Germany and Italy, to which we can add the United Kingdom -” since 2020 and a “growth of less intensity in the different European peripheries, where Ireland and Poland stand out,” in addition.
In general, a “loss of presence is detected that seems to point to a reduction of its role as a global actor”, but not for that reason the world is falling into a bipolar model like that of past decades, because the EU has also arrived to stay and has things to say. “In the first place, the EU records the highest presence value throughout the series, although since 2020 it suffers an important loss. In second place, the US had been gaining presence since 2010 and, although it interrupted this dynamic before the pandemic, it increases presence in recent years. In third place, China interrupts its growth in recent years, which had been strengthened with the pandemic, registering for the first time in the series of global presence losses in the series holds the index.
Basically, our environment has lost bellows due to the slightest economic weight, although it recovers that soft power already cited. Washington, on the other hand, is touched by its descent in exports of goods, but rises in foreign services and investment and, of course, maintains its “military leadership”, while Beijing also lowers manufacturing exports – although still the “capitanea” – and services, but traces in military presence and military presence and soft power;
“The distance between the US, China and the EU is lower in the economic and greater dimension in the military and soft, although with nuances. Eeuu leads energy and primary goods, China manufactures and the EU services and investment. In the military dimension, the distance occurs fundamentally in the volume of troops deployed, led by the US, while, in equipment, China exceeds the EU. concentrated in few indicators and the distance is extended in the sections of migrations, tourism, sports, education and cooperation, which have traditionally been part of the soft projection nucleus, “the thought tank deepens.
The general conclusion is that globalization is less and less homogeneous. “It’s early to know the magnitude of transformations,” González and Gracia Santos say, but there is a clear thing: “The rhythm and nature of the process (…) have changed.” “A globalization that recovers the hardest elements and that seems to fracture in geographical terms, which will not necessarily imply a minor, although a different one, globalization to the so far known,” they conclude.
