Among the many issues raised by his return to the US presidency is the discussion of the world’s new sharing into spheres of influence.
Seeking the United States from Europe, leaving the war in Ukraine in the hands of Russia, and Trump sends signals that a possible redistribution of the world in spheres of influence between the three Great Powers – the US, Russia and China – will probably be in the US. In this scenario.
Macron attitude
In view of these revisionist tendencies, the French president rushed, from Singapore’s international defense meeting last week, to call for a coalition of “unstoppable countries”, who will face “the challenge of the countries”.
Paradoxical revival, in the 21st century, a term that was first formulated in the 19th, at the Berlin Summit in 1885, when the great colonial forces of the time, Britain, France, the Netherlands and Spain, distributed their colonies. At the end of the Cold War, in 1989, the term “spheres of influence” fell into disregard and globalization laid the foundations for today’s interconnected world.
The overturn Trump
Trump, however: is mainly interested in US influence on the American continent (Canada, Mexico and Latin America) and appears willing to assign power to Russia (having previously secured an agreement with Ukraine to exploit its rare land and its rarum withdrew).
According to his article Sarang Syntoranalyst of the US Think Tank Quincy Insite, in Foreign Policy magazine, the new sharing of the world could be as follows: the US to maintain their influence on the American continent, Japan and Australia, Russia in the nearby countries in Europe and Asia Minor Southeast Asia.
Speaking to “Vima”, the American historian Steven Vertheim of Think Tank Carnegie Endowement for International Peace supports the opposite. “There is no evidence that Trump intends to assign Moscow influence spheres to Europe and even less assign Beijing to Asia. The whole debate on spheres of influence limits the spectrum of options that the US has at their disposal. For example, Washington’s consent to not joining Ukraine to NATO with the ultimate goal of ending war means that Ukraine will be neutral, does not mean that it will give it to Russia. Trump’s attitude towards Europe’s security has not yet been clarified, but Russia seems unrealistic to expand its influence beyond the areas it is already controlling. Even if Trump withdraws from Europe the US troops, Europeans have the ability and ability to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in the region. “.
As for the assignment of China of a sphere of influence in East Asia, the indications are even less, according to the American historian. “Trump infiltrated the trade war against China, but returned to the” strategic ambiguity “approach to what the US would do if China attacks Taiwan. The Pentagon is preparing to reinforce, not to reduce, the US military presence in the Asia -Pacific region. Even if, hypothetically, China understands Taiwan, the fact in itself would not allow her to establish a “sphere of influence” throughout the Western Pacific “ ends up.
The Role of the EU in Asia
“The Americans are trying to push everyone. But this is not going to happen » says to “Vima” by Paris, the David KamrouAssistant Professor of Asian Studies at the Sciences-PO School of International Studies (Ceri). “The US pride, especially Trump, impresses, but the countries of Southeast Asia do not want to have to choose between China and the US. To say, these countries are different from each other. The Philippines, for example, are by far the most pro -American country and the one that more strongly accepts China’s aggression. On the other hand, Vietnam is the country in which the US imposed a 46%trade duties. “.
Asked if Europe can play a more dynamic role in the Southeast Asia region, the “Step” interlocutor replies that Macron’s speech in Singapore about the unraveling of a group of unbounded countries was the most appropriate and let’s not be shown. ‘Macron was very lucky in terms’ He stresses. “For a long time, the processes are continuing and Europeans are coming closer to the countries of Southeast Asia.”.
Kamrou substitutes his view, reminding that there is also the forgotten but important, free trade agreement known as the CptPP acronym (integrated progressive alliance of Pacific countries), which the US president had entered into Barack Obama In 2010 with the countries of Southeast Asia.
“In 2016, when Trump was first elected president, he withdrew the US from the deal, but the other eleven countries involved in it, including Australia, Canada, Vietnam and others, continued their cooperation. A few months ago, Britain also joined the agreement and it is very likely that the EU will also participate. “. Kerrou does not hide his optimism because “Thanks to” Divine Don “and” Divine Vlad “, Europe’s role in this region is upgraded».
