Iranian Supreme Longer Longer Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, faced a multitude of critical moments in front of the Islamic Republic, but the open conflict with Israel represents its most difficult proof, as it threatens both the political system that it directs and its physical integrity.
He succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989 and since then faced sanctions, international tensions and repressed blood protests, the last in 2022-2023 against the policy of forcing women to wear a veil. Given his advanced age, 86 years old, the issue of succession has been present for some time in the Iranian political scene.
– Khamenei is at the time of his reign, 86, and much of the regime’s daily command is no longer in his hands, but in a series of factions waiting for what will happen in the future – explains Arash Azizi of the University of Boston. -This process was already underway, and the current war does nothing but accelerate it.
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According to an American employee, President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to murder Khamenei. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out any option on Sunday in an interview with Fox News., Saying that he will do “what we have to do, and I believe the United States knows what is good for the United States.” On Monday, in an interview with ABC News, it was even more emphatic in claiming that Khamenei’s death would take “at the end of the conflict.”
– He is like a modern Hitler. He won’t stop, but let’s make sure he has no means to execute his threats, ”the Israeli Premier told ABC News. – “Eternal War” is what Iran wants, and they are taking us on the brink of a nuclear war.
Khamenei, a war veteran against Iraq (1980-1988), has not traveled abroad since taking office 36 years ago and, in 1981, survived an attempted murder that left his right arm paralyzed. Any of your movements is involved in confidentiality and an important security device.
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– It is possible that [Israel] Have your own plan of regime change, whether supporting an internal blow, either by eliminating the highest level in the hope that it leads to a fundamental change in posture compared to Israel or something similar to a regime change – explains Azizi.
Karim Sadjadpour, Member of the Carnegie Fund for International Peace comments that Khamenei seems to have self -inflicted a difficult dilemma. And he believes he lacks the “physical and cognitive acuity necessary to lead Iran in a war with a high technological component.”
– A weak response to Israel would further decrease its authority. And a strong answer could endanger your survival and that of your regime – adds.
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Script
For decades, Khamenei has managed to keep the country safe from direct conflicts, while his regime has sponsored Israel’s enemies – Palestinian Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis of Yemen – and the Assad family’s Syrian regime, knocked down last December by an Islamist group coalition. But with Iran’s partners weakened by Israel since the war in Gaza began in October 2023 and the current Israeli attacks, this situation has completely changed.
-Since assuming the Supreme Leadership in 1989, he is proud to have removed the conflicts of Iran’s borders, ”says Jason Brodsky of the United Against Nuclear Iran (“ United Against a Nuclear Iran ”, Uani), headquartered in the United States. – This way, Khamenei made a big calculation error.
What is happening at this time “is happening at a speed that threatens to overcome Tehran’s ability,” he emphasizes.
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Israel, who has nuclear weapons, but never confirmed or denied his existence, launched on June 13 an unprecedented military campaign against Iran, killing the leader of the revolutionary guard, the armed forces chief of staff, and several nuclear scientists, and reaches facilities of his atomic program and military local. All this with the aim of preventing Iran from obtaining the atomic bomb, a goal that the Islamic Republic denies being chasing.
The offensive surprised the country’s leadership after years of economic difficulties due to international sanctions imposed as a result of the nuclear program.
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– Many Iranians want the Islamic Republic to end. But most do not want this to be achieved at the expense of blood and war – explains Holly Dagres, senior associate of the Washington Institute Study Center.
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In his interview with Fox News, Netanyahu suggested that the “change of regime” could be the result of the Israeli military campaign, insisting that it will be the Iranians who will decide the fate of their government.
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“This could effectively be the result, because the Iranian regime is very weak,” said Netanyahu, stating that 80% of the population is against the government of Ayatollah.
Iranian opposition is very divided, inside and outside the country. Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shady, deposed by the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and a prominent opposing figure in exile, encouraged the Iranians: “Keep strong and we will win.” For now, no massive protests have been reported against the government, although some channels in the abroad Persian have released images of groups singing slogans against Khamenei.
“The idea that all this end with a popular uprising that provides a regime change or gives power to someone in the opposition abroad has no basis,” Azizi concludes.
With a regime change as a distant hypothesis, Khamenei’s succession can, according to experts, change the foundations of the Islamic Republic, in a context in which the revolutionary guard is the strongest candidate to take over the reins. This “new Iran” could have a supreme leader with less power than Khamenei, and a less -affected state to theocratic repression but with even less tolerance to dissonant discourses.
