The Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government is on alert with the potential economic impacts of the announced tariff this week by US President Donald Trump. In particular, the fear is of a new inflationary escalation, pulled by the appreciation of the dollar against the real.
According to Planalto interlocutors, heard by Folha de S. Paulothe currency scenario came relatively favorable until the beginning of this week. Between March and April, for example, the dollar fell from $ 5.68 to about $ 5.40, following a drop in price rates.
However, right after the announcement of the American surcharge, the exchange rate reversed the trajectory and jumped R $ 5.62, returning the recent gains. The fear of a prolonged commercial dispute with the US is seen as a continuous pressure factor on the currency.
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Investment flow
The highest fear of the government, the sources say to the SheetIt is that the crisis extends for months, causing short -term capital to exit and cooling the appetite of long -term foreign investors. The perception of risk can lead to a reduction in foreign direct investment (IDE), which still supports much of the Brazilian balance of payments.
With less dollar entry, the real tends to devalue further, and this directly affects the prices of food, fuels, medications and services, raising inflation.
Although exports to the US represent about 12% of everything Brazil sells abroad, government technicians remember that international trade is almost totally dollarized. That is, the discharge of the American currency makes the entire exchanges system, even with other business partners.
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Balance Balance resists
Despite the potential impact on prices and investments, the government assesses that trade balance should not be immediately collapsed, the newspaper said. The export rate for the US, although relevant, can be partially offset by destination relocations. Still, political wear and tear is inevitable, especially in a context of falling popularity and inflation that already worries the electorate.
The economic team now works to contain the impact and avoid a new round of price increases in the coming months. Brazilian response to Trump’s fare is still under construction, but government sources indicate, according to the Sheetthat any measure will be calibrated to protect the home economy and preserve the inflationary environment.
