Another day, another round of tariff threats from President Trump – and another record for S&P 500. What’s going on? [A coluna foi publicada antes de as bolsas fecharem na sexta-feira]
It can be the result of increasing market optimism about an interest rate cut, or relief because some companies have presented surprisingly positive results. Or it can be a already seen From the so -called “Taco Trade”, with convinced investors that Trump will retreat again in the trade war.
But Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase offered another explanation on Thursday: “Unfortunately, I think there is complacency in the markets.”
Latest news: Trump said on Thursday that he would impose one, from August 1, and that he plans to increase basic rates for all business partners to between 15% and 20%, against 10% today. “I think the tariffs were very well received,” he told NBC News. “The stock market has reached a new discharge today.”
Despite the climb of the trade war, the S&P 500 futures on Friday fell slightly only.
But the commercial scenario can start to get confused. Vietnam was surprised by the 20% rate announced by Trump last week, according to the Bloombergand would be seeking to negotiate better commercial terms. In fact, Hanoi has not formally accepted the key details of what the White House presented as a closed agreement and a great victory, the site adds Politico.
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This raises a big question about global markets: Should investors believe Trump’s word? “You have to pay his bluff at this point,” Patrick Armstrong, director of investment director at Plurimo Wealth, told Bloomberg Television on Friday.
Interest rates also weigh on investors. Lower loan costs can relieve families and increase corporate profits. Trump has kept the pressure on the Fed: “The country is now ‘back.’ An excellent credit! The Fed should quickly reduce the rate to reflect this force,” he wrote on Truth Social on Thursday.
But the main central bank policy formulators remain divided. In Trump’s group is Christopher Waller, a Trump nominated Fed presidential candidate next year, which is open to reducing loan costs at the next rate definition meeting later this month. Mary Daly, president of the Fed of San Francisco, predicts two cuts, but starting in September. And Alberto Musalem, president of St. Louis Fed, thinks the Central Bank should continue to wait, a similar position to Fed President Jerome Powell.
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The future market on Friday was pricing about two cuts, starting in September.
Dimon is a counterattack [alguém cuja opinião vai contra a corrente] here too. The JPMorgan CEO thinks the rates should rise. “I’m pricing a 40% to 50% chance of this happening, he said, believing that markets are underestimating the consequences of tariffs.
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