Dollar rises, Bolsa Polho and exporting companies are the most affected; Brazilian government suggests response based on reciprocity; Ibovespa registered a drop of 3.20% throughout the week
It ended Friday (11) with a slight increase of 0.1%, quoted at R $ 5.5479, while the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange fell 0.41%at 136,187 points. The movements reflect the tension generated by the US government’s decision to impose a 50% rate on Brazilian products, a measure announced last Wednesday (9) by President Donald Trump. Throughout the week, the US currency accumulated up 2.28% against the real. In the same period, it retreated 3.20%, registering negative performance in all trading sessions of the week. In July, the scholarship already accumulates a fall of 1.96%, after four consecutive months of discharge.
Tariffs directly affect strategic sectors of the Brazilian economy, such as oil, steel, coffee, beef, orange juice and aircraft. Embraer, for example, is one of the most exposed companies: about 23.8% of its revenue comes from sales to the US. Other potentially impacted companies include Suzano, Tupy, Jalles Machado and Frasle Mobility.
In addition to sectoral losses, the measure increased the degree of uncertainty in the market and rekindled the fear of a trade war. During the morning of Friday, the dollar went up almost 1% in the risk of climbing in the conflict, but slowed down at the end of the day after Trump signaled that he can talk to the president “at some point.”
Lula criticized Trump’s stance, which justified the new tariff with political arguments and even cited former President Jair Bolsonaro in a letter sent to the Brazilian government. In response, the president stated that Brazil will seek dialogue, but, if necessary, will use the economic reciprocity law to impose tariffs on the US. “We want to negotiate, but we want respect for Brazil’s decisions. If he [Trump] keep playing taxation, this will be infinite, ”Lula said in an interview with National newspaper.
Lula’s law allows the government to apply provisional retaliation measures while trying to solve trade disputes. Trump, in turn, said that if Brazil react with new rates, the US could further increase rates on Brazilian products. Analysts warn of the risk of increased inflation and economic deceleration. A more expensive dollar makes imported products more expensive and presses internal prices, which can lead the Central Bank to keep interest rates at high levels – currently at 15%, the highest level in almost two decades.
Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance stated that the impact on GDP growth in 2025 should be limited and concentrated in some sectors. The growth projection for 2024 was reviewed upwards from 2.4% to 2.5%.
Brazil is not the only target of new US commercial measures. Since the beginning of the week, Trump has sent letters to leaders from 23 countries, stipulating minimal rates to negotiate with the United States. Canada was notified on Thursday (10) over a 35%tariff, on the grounds that the country does not properly fight fentanyl trafficking. Trump also promised to announce rates to the European Union, which accentuated risk aversion in global markets.
Published by Felipe Dantas
*Report produced with the aid of AI
