The new IRS retention tables will, as a rule, reduce reimbursements or increase the amount to be delivered by taxpayers at the time of reckoning in 2026, show PWC simulations.
Like what happened in 2024, in which the tax also lowered in mid -year, the government adjusts the retention tables at font in August and September to compensate for the retention already made in the first months of the year based on a version of the IRS code prior to fiscal displeasure.
Therefore, retention rates are especially lower than those applied from January to July, with even taxpayers who are exempt from discounting any value.
Then, in October, November and December, they change again, for more August and September, but lower than those practiced in the first seven months of 2025.
PWC simulations allow you to see how all the amount retained over 2025 – based on the tables from January to July, from August to September, and from October to December – influences the final hit in 2026, relative to 2025 income influences.
From these calculations, it is possible to verify that next year the reimbursements increase or decrease, if taxpayers who already delivered tax will have to pay a higher or lower amount, and if there are taxpayers to pass from a reimbursement situation for collection.
To Lusa, Joana Garrido, from the PWC tax team, explains that “the significant decrease” of the amount retained in August and September “will imply, in almost all cases analyzed, a decrease in the refund of IRS or an increase in the additional IRS payable” in the delivery of the IRS statement to be made by 2026, compared to the 2024 IRS.
The inspector confirms that there is an “increasing” approximation of IRS withheld monthly to the annual tax, which decreases “the situations in which IRS reimbursement would occur”.
“When we observe the income levels over approximately 3,000 euros, we can see that, in the vast majority of cases, after the annual IRS statement, there will be payment of an additional IRS amount by taxpayers, contrary to what happened in 2024 [em que havia um reembolso]”, Use.
According to Joana Garrido, this effect is mostly resulting from the fact that retention rates at the source of August and September “are significantly lower than those applied in August and September 2024” to taxpayers “with income levels up to approximately 20,000 euros”.
According to the simulations, a worker due to single and without children who wins 1,500 euros gross will pay 2,354.73 IRS euros on 2025 income (this is the real IRS value). As this year will retain 2,228 euros, you will have to deliver 126 euros to the state in the final hit, because the discounted amount was lower than the real tax. Regarding the IRS of 2024, the same happened: it retained less than the real tax to pay, but the difference was smaller, having been called to deliver 91 euros at the time of the hit.
Other simulated cases show identical situations, for example, single workers who receive 1,250, 1,750, 2,500, 3,000, 3,500 euros.
However, there are also situations where the hit is smaller. It happens to single workers and no children who earn 950 euros or 2,000 euros.
Those who earn 5,000, 6,000 or 7,000 euros monthly no longer receive a refund and have to deliver IRS at the time of the hit, a circumstance of whether with single workers and children, either with married workers and children or children.
It must be taken into account that, in some situations, the value of deductions to the collection can dictate a different result, causing a taxpayer to pay a refund.
Simulations concern abstract and simple cases. In the case of deductions, it assumes it as an assumption that “the taxpayer does not have any other deductible expenses, beyond the general and family expenses” of 250 euros.
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