Boasts it of solvency. In a hypothetical environment of strong economic contraction, rebound of unemployment, falls in real estate prices and high financial volatility, Spanish banks would consume 180 basic capital points, which is one of the lowest figures among the comparable European countries, according to the stress tests published this Friday the European Banking Authority (EBA). The European average is 304 basic points.
Among the great financial systems, only Italian banks have made better note than the Spaniards (volatilized 154 basic capital points). But the entities of comparable countries such as the Netherlands (249 basic points) Germany (384 points) or France (417 points) have been very far from the Spanish. “The solid income generation during exercise helps banks partially compensate for their losses and results in a minor loss compared to the 2023 exercise,” the EBA report highlights. In the last stress test, European banks would overcome
Among domestic banks, Bankinter is the one that best resists the adverse scenario. Its capital ratio (measured under the ratio CET1 Fully loaded) It would hardly be reduced from 12% to 11.5%, an erosion of only 55 basic points. It is followed by Caixabank, whose solvency would go from 12.4% to 10.8%, which implies a drop of 162 basic points. In the case of Santander, the capital would be 10.5% after absorbing an impact of 173 basic points, while BBVA would maintain a 11% CET1 after a loss of 186 basic points. On the other hand, Unicaja and Sabadell would register the largest capital deteriorations, with reductions of 259 and 281 basic points, respectively. Even so, all entities analyzed would retain capital ratios above 10%, even in a context of severe crisis.
Stress tests are a key tool to measure the ability to. It is an exercise to which the main banks of the European Union are submitted every two years in order to evaluate its solvency in case of a severe economic shock. The exercise projects the impact of two scenarios, one base and another adverse, on bank solvency during a three -year horizon. From their balance at the end of 2024, the entities calculate how much capital would be eroded in each assumption.
In this edition, the starting point of the banks was especially solid because many of them, especially the Spaniards, closed their last exercise with record benefits promoted by high interest rates. “In 2024, EU banks maintained almost historical levels of profitability, with a profitability of 10.5% and high net income that provides a significant mattress to absorb losses in an adverse scenario,” emphasizes the EBA report.
But now, in a context of economic slowdown, lower rates, geopolitical tensions and financial uncertainty, regulators want to verify to what extent a hypothetical storm. “The solid performance of EU banks in the 2025 resistance tests at the entire EU is encouraging, but this should not generate complacency between banks or supervisors. Maintaining adequate capital remains essential to ensure that the EU banking system can continue to support the economy in adverse conditions and avoid becoming a source of amplification during crises,” warns the organism in line with its prudent messages.
The adverse scenario designed by the EBA contemplates an accumulated 6.3%GDP fall, slightly more intense than in the previous edition, which was 6%. It also includes a considerable increase in unemployment (6.1%), strong stock market corrections and a collapse in the real estate market. All this seeks to simulate a macroeconomic stress environment that tests the loss absorption capacity of banks.
Beyond a static photograph, these tests have relevant practical implications. Its results are used by the European Central Bank (ECB) to calibrate those that individually set each bank every year to ensure that they are well capitalized and can absorb losses. A bad result can be translated into higher regulatory demands, which directly affects the ability of entities to distribute dividends or execute shares of shares.
In fact, the methodology sometimes generates friction between entities and supervisors. Unlike the United States, where it is the Federal Reserve who directly performs the calculations, in Europe it is the entities themselves who apply the scenarios provided by the EBA and report their results. This can generate discrepancies in the severity of the estimated impact because some entities can soften it. At the beginning of the year, the ECB already warned that he could do inspections on-site If it detects that any bank has applied excessively optimistic assumptions. In the words of the supervisor itself, entities must adopt “a prudent approach” in their estimates. According to Bloomberg, some banks have received the visit of supervisors to verify that the calculations are adjusted to reality.
