South American country can end 19 years of left hegemony; High index of indeterminate votes, between null, white and undecided, add elements of uncertainty about the results this Sunday (17)
A He goes to the polls this Sunday (17) to elect the new president of the country and renew the parliament of 130 deputies and 36 senators. Right candidates follow favorites, and about 23% of the indefinite votes bring uncertainties about the final result of the election. Former President of Bolivia in 2001 and 2002, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, considered from a more radical right, has appeared ahead in the surveys, followed by Samuel Doria Medina, considered a more moderate right-wing. With about 12 million people, the Andean nation borders four Brazilian states.
The crack in the movement to socialism (MAS)-a party that leads the country since 2006-can consolidate the end of the left-wing country cycle in the South American country that has lasted 19 years. Former President Evo Morales, prevented from participating in the election, has been preaching the null vote. In this scenario, the main left -linked candidates appear behind in the polls, both worn out by the Association with the MAS – for almost 20 years in power amid a persistent economic crisis.
The left-wing candidates are Andronics Rodríguez, current president of the Senate, and Eduardo Del Castillo, former minister of the current government of Luis Arce, who, who gave up reelecting himself in the very low approval of the government. If there are no changes, the two right -wing candidates should go to the second round, scheduled for October 19th.
Uncertainties
However, the high index of indefinite votes, between null, white and undecided, and doubts about rural vote, historically more difficult to measure in Bolivia, add elements of uncertainty about this Sunday’s results. The doctoral student in Political Science at Alina Ribeiro pondered Agência Brasil that research in Bolivia is not usually very accurate.
“In the 2020 elections, the support for Luis Arce was very underreported. I think this fraction of the undecided population, or that will vote null or white, is paramount to the results of the election,” says the researcher at the Center for Democracy and Collective Action of the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning (NDAC-CEBRAP). The most recent survey, published on Friday (15) by Atlasintel, shows that 23% of the population indicated a white, null vote or do not know who will vote for.
Favorites
The candidate who appears ahead in the polls, Tuto Quiroga, was Minister of Finance in 1992 and elected vice president of Bolivia in 1997. In 2005, in the first election that but won, he was second, losing to Evo. The candidate has signaled that, if he wins the elections, he will break relations with Venezuela, Cuba and Iran, but admitted that he will keep Bolivia as a partner member of the BRICS, due to the commercial bond with China and India.
In an interview with CNN, Tuto questioned Bolivia’s participation in Mercosur and proposed an agreement with Chile and Argentina for lithium exploration, a fundamental mineral for technology industry. It is estimated that the largest reserves of the mineral are in these three Latin American countries. The candidate uses language similar to Argentine President Javier Milei, citing he will use a “chainsaw” to cut public spending. The equipment was one of the brands of Argentina’s ultraliberal president during the campaign.
“Chainsaw, machete, scissors and everything else you find. It’s a waste and endless theft here. Today, the Bolivian government costs 11 times more than it cost when these unfortunates started, 20 years ago,” he said. Researcher Alina Ribeira added that Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga has been talking about making economic, judicial and constitutional reforms. “He also promised to release Luiz Fernando Camacho. This is a very symbolic position for what he represents. Tuto looks at Camacho as a political prisoner,” he said. Camacho was governor of the province of Santa Cruz, Bolivia, and arrested for participating in the 2019 riots that led to the resignation of President Evo Morales, an episode considered a coup d’état.
Medina
Then, in the surveys, appears Samuel Doria Medina, who has presented himself as a more moderate politician. He is a Bolivian mega -candlestick from the cement industry, the hotel, food and has large real estate properties. Medina has already run for presidency twice, second in 2014. He promises to stabilize Bolivia’s economy in 100 days of government. “Bolivia’s economic problem is fundamentally fiscal. This year, the fiscal deficit is greater than 10%. No economy can support a deficit of this magnitude. The deficit should be corrected. Practically half of this deficit are gasoline and diesel subsidies. In Bolivia, a liter of gasoline or diesel costs 25 cents,” he said in an interview with Infobae.
RECORD LEFT
The Bolivian left cracked after the division of the subtitle between the supporters of former President Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce. The candidate of the current president, former Minister Eduardo Del Castillo, who had been embittering 2% of the poll voting intentions of the newspaper El Deber, scored 8.1% in the latest atlasintel survey. The main hope of the left is the president of the Senate and former Syndicalist Cocalem, Andronics Rodríguez, who left the MAS to launch the presidency of the country and began to be treated by Evo as a “traitor”.
Andronics also lost support from some but maintains base organizations on his plate, as deputy, former planning minister Mariana Prado. Indigenous Cocalem leader showed some recovery in the Atlasintel survey, reaching 11%. In previous surveys, he scored 8% in voting intentions. “These are relevant changes in research, but they still don’t put the left on equal footing with the right,” said Alina. For the specialist in Bolivia, it was a mistake but not supporting the candidacy of andron.
“Andronistic symbolizes this new indigenous and peasant subject. It symbolizes this group that led the process from the early 2000s and led to MA to power. When it supports the candidacy of Eduardo Del Castillo, who is a white man and distanced from this electoral base that makes up the MAS, the party contributed to this internal division within the left,” he said. For Alina Ribeiro, the fight between Evo and Arce prevented the MAA and supported andron, which was very linked to former President Evo. “They evaluated that it would not be interesting to postulate the candidacy of andron because it was still a figure very associated with the history of Evo Morales,” he concluded.
*With information from Agência Brasil
