Analysis || A parade and a summit in China underline how European security will never be the same
This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a clear message to Ukraine and his European allies: Moscow can continue, because we have powerful friends.
The Russian leader was side by side at various events in China with men who allowed him to wage his war against Ukraine for so long and with such ferocity: Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and North Korea Kim Jong Un.
More than three years after what Putin thought was a quick achievement of his much smaller and weaker neighbor, Russia would be unable to support the fight without Chinese and Indian money, the Iranian weapons and, to a lesser extent, North Korean labor.
But the message conveyed by both the summit and the military parade organized by China this week was far beyond the war in Ukraine.
Leaders who have gathered in China may not agree on everything. Some of them may not even like each other very much. But they are seeing the opportunity for a life to end Western rule in the global scenario. And Europe fears to be on the fire line.
The events have provided a strong visual recall of the reasons why Europe must rethink its safety. She has spent the last few years trying to isolate the leader of Russia and to weaken her economy, while accepting the fact that the United States may no longer be the ally to which it can always appeal.
However, there was Putin, alongside some of the most powerful men in the world, reaffirming their friendships.
“Russia is trying to demonstrate that although it has been isolated from the western world, it still has partners and allies that are economically strong countries … and this isolation does not mean that the Russian economy will collapse or that Russia will be unable to support its war effort,” Natia Seskuria, an associated researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told CNN.
The international order established after the end of the Cold War is clearly at risk of crumbling.
The US has been removed from the global scenario under the leadership of President Donald Trump and its “America First” agenda. Meanwhile, Europe fights its own challenges, including increasing far-right nationalism and economic pressures.
Russia, China, India, and other countries that didn’t like the idea of a US -dominated world suddenly saw an opportunity.
“The established domain of the Western Alliance in international affairs is decreasing, and they see the opportunity to begin to seriously reformulate the international system,” said John Lough, head of foreign policy of the think tank New Eurasian Strategies Centre, à CNN.
This week revealed these ambitions for everyone to see, including Trump.
Trump understood the message. “Please convey my most warm greetings to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un while conspiring against the United States of America,” he wrote in a message to XI.
Conditions
Despite all recent hand and smile tightening, the approach of China and India to the Russian War in Ukraine is dominated by pragmatism, consider several analysts.
The two countries consistently profess their neutrality regarding war – while feeding it, providing financial aid to Russia.
China and India were more than happy to intervene when Ukraine Western Allies imposed sanctions on Russian oil, an important source of Moscow Revenue. As a result, they get cheaper energy supplies, but experts say the relationship is not just about money.
Although neither China nor India are willing to come into direct confrontation with the West, both are pleased to see Russia promoting an anto -western agenda.
“China is much closer to Russia with regard to multipolarity and decreased western influence in general. There is an ideological affinity and also a pure economic interest,” says Seskuria.
Lough says Russia’s pressure against the US -dominated world order also fits well with the Indian narrative. “I think Indians are not unhappy to see Russia to promote this agenda of defending the interests of the global south and ensuring that the global governance system is adapted to accommodate emerging economies with large populations,” he says.
Beijing and Deli are now the two world’s largest oil and Russian coal buyers, with China being the second largest gas buyer and oil products in Russia.
The support goes beyond oil. According to the US Treasury, Chinese and Indian companies have provided the so -called double -use technologies to Russia, or components that can be used for civil and military purposes, such as chips or telecommunications equipment that Russia cannot get elsewhere due to western sanctions.
“Just look at the number of Chinese components in the Russian drones that are landing in Ukraine to see that China is really a very important supplier,” Lous added.
However, Ukraine and its European allies are not willing to completely discard India and China, because they are aware that if anyone can exert real pressure on Putin to finish war – in the absence of tougher Trump measures – it is probably Beijing and, perhaps to a lesser extent, New Delhi.
North Korea and Iran, in turn, remained firmly on the side of Russia. Already sanctioned and isolated by the West due to their nuclear programs and other activities, they have little to lose.
Iran was particularly useful for Moscow in the first months of the war, providing it know-how About how to reduce the impact of sanctions, said Loul. Crucially, Iran has also provided very necessary military equipment, including the weapon that significantly changed the way Moscow fights in Ukraine – the Shahed drone.
The two countries even signed a new partnership agreement and launched joint military exercises.
However, Tehran has learned the most difficult way than any alliance with Russia has clear limits.
Putin did not come to the aid of Iran when he was attacked by Israel and later by the US this summer. In addition to providing a safe exit to former Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, previously a key ally for both Russia and Iran, Putin did not intervene when the Assad regime was overthrown in December.
For North Korea, isolated and impoverished, the relationship with Russia remains purely transactional, says Seskuria.
Russia needs men, and North Korea is possibly the only country that can afford to luxury, in political terms, to send its own people to fight in a war that has been marked by an extremely high rates on the Russian side.
“They do not have much to lose, in the sense that there is no public opinion or any resistance that may oppose Kim’s decision to send troops to Ukraine,” says Seskuria.
Pragmatism above all?
The warm reception that Putin received in China, along with the military and diplomatic power displayed during the summit and the military parade, was designed to convey a message.
“Here we have this symbol of a group of countries that are not the best friends, but who have common strategic interests and who are able to align and show the US and their allies that they are a force to be considered,” Lough said.
“This is disturbing to say the least, and some would say disturbing, but then you need to ask: To what extent is this sustainable?” He asks.
The changes represented by events in China did not happen overnight. Europe may have been caught by surprise when Russia launched its large -scale invasion to Ukraine, but has changed since.
“We are starting to see now what Europeans are capable and, in terms of defense developments in Europe, we can see some remarkable changes,” Lous said.
Things that would be unthinkable for just a few years – such as Germany altering its constitution to increase defense spending or Sweden and Finland, firmly neutral countries, adhered to NATO – are now happening due to geopolitical changes that have been evident this week.
As much as Putin’s camaraderie with Xi and Modi may have caused some discomfort in many European capitals, the group was gathered by a combination of necessity, economic pragmatism and opportunity, analysts say.
“It is a very functional relationship that is not based on a strong mutual affection.
It’s an alliance of interest, not an alliance of countries, ”Lous said, adding that interests can change and many things can happen over the next three and a half years of Trump’s presidency.
“We are not at a time when suddenly the game is over, because a group of leaders from whom we do not like gathered in China for a great celebration,” he concludes.
