Ministry of Finance states that there are “signs of deceleration” of economic activity; The estimated inflation drops from 4.9% to 4.8% this year
O reduced from 2.5% to 2.3% the estimate for the growth of (gross domestic product) in 2025. The SPE (Secretariat of Economic Policy) argues that the review “It is related to the outcome below expected to the second quarter GDP compared to the projected in July”.
The agency says there “Signs of deceleration” in the Brazilian economic activity. “The 2nd quarter GDP revealed moderation in the growth of cyclical activities and negative contribution of domestic absorption to growth. The pace of expansion of credit concessions has been reduced, along with the increase in bank interest rates and default.”says.
For 2026, SPE maintained the estimated GDP growth by 2.4%. The data were released on Thursday (11.Set.2025), prepared by the Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Finance. Here’s (PDF – 586 KB) of the document.
In the 2nd quarter, economic activity over the first quarter of this year. There was a slowdown. In 2024, the
INFLATION
The estimate for the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) fell from 4.9% to 4.8% in 2025. The indicator is responsible for measuring official inflation inflation in Brazil.
If the projection is confirmed, inflation will be above the target ceiling of 4.5% per year. On Wednesday (10.Set), IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released the latest IPCA data.
The 12 -month rate ended in August was 5.13%. There was last month.
SPE stated that the review was by:
- Lasting effects of the most appreciated real;
- the lowest inflation wholesale agricultural and industrial;
- excessive supply of goods on a world scale as a reflection of the increase in commercial tariffs.
“This estimate considers yellow flag for electricity tariffs in December”adds. For 2026, the projected IPCA remained at 3.6%.
The projection for the (National Consumer Price Index), which measures the inflation of Brazilian families with an income of up to 5 salaries (which is equivalent to R $ 7,590 today), followed by 4.7% for 2025. The estimate presented by 2026 continues at 3.3%.
