PL and PP presidents, Valdemar Costa Neto and Ciro Nogueira have repeated in recent times a sentence: that the only person who cannot lose the 2026 election is (PL).
Those who follow the movement of these politicians, two of the former president’s main allies, know that they do not refer to a candidacy of Bolsonaro himself, but to someone who is his ally and represent him.
In other words, the implicit message is that a forgiveness in fact to the former president will only be possible in an ally government, such as (Republicans-PB), a favorite name of the center and right-wing parties group that runs Congress.
“The only person who can’t miss this next election is Bolsonaro, and he won’t risk it. I draw the conclusions. Tarcisio is a candidate if he has the support of Bolsonaro. Lula doesn’t even dispute with Tarcisio,” Ciro bet, for example,.
The governor of São Paulo, even, has already promised as the first act of his management.
Although in the speeches Tarcisio himself says defending a wide amnesty that free Bolsonaro from jail and recollowing him at the polls, there is no behind the scenes of the center and also of pockets in the real expectation Congress that the return of his eligibility may occur before 2027.
Neither expectation nor interest, since the unified speech in these parties is that a candidate of the Bolsonaro family tends to remove much of the group due to the rejection associated with the former president. Already Tarcisio would join everyone, they say.
Because of this, there are two hypotheses currently more in vogue in Congress, both with important obstacles.
Centrão leaders say they have votes for an amnesty that represents Bolsonaro criminal forgiveness, which would deliver it from jail, but maintain its ineligibility due to the two convictions of the Electoral Justice.
The problem is that this forgiveness does not have the sympathy of part of the group, the left and the presidents of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), and David Alcolumbre (Brazil-AP Union). The two work for an alternative text.
More than that, the wide amnesty would represent a clear affront to the one, which has just condemned the former president with a strong discourse to defend democracy and the need for punishment to avoid new coup attempts in the country.
Total forgiveness would represent a great demoralization to the court. So much so that Alexandre de Moraes, Flávio Dino and Gilmar Mendes, at least, have already anticipated the position they consider unconstitutional the amnesty.
The second hypothesis under discussion in Congress is that an amnesty project at this time will necessarily be restricted to a text that can be accepted behind the scenes by the STF wing near Moraes.
Part of the politicians defends a text that reduces penalties of the nearly 700 convicted by the attacks of January 8, 2023, without dealing with the central nucleus of the plot convicted this week by the Supreme Court.
This proposal would feature sympathy on the part of the Supreme Court, which would undertake not to overthrow the measure, but is rejected by the PL, today the largest party in the House, and also by pockets spread in other parties.
If this scenario is confirmed, new amnesty proposals can gain strength in the event of a 2026 Bolsonarism victory.
For now, some allies of the former president also bet on measures that abide by serving the sentence, such as authorization so that, like Fernando Collor de Mello, Bolsonaro is authorized to.
He is 70 years old and suffers from health problems, especially those of the knife attack he suffered in the 2018 election campaign.
