Advancement of the agenda in Congress has no definite deadlines, depends on political agreements and Lula should veto if project is approved; In the end, if it will end in the STF that should consider this forgiveness unconstitutional
An amnesty for those convicted of the January 8 extremist acts that benefit the former president (PL) has many political obstacles to be transposed. But there is also an operational difficulty: the available calendar of 2025.
Political negotiations and deadlines for some stages of the process indicate that Bolsonaro could be unlikely to be amnesty in 2025. The former president was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison by the Supreme Court for attempted coup.
Next, a detail of how each stages of the eventual process of the amnesty bill should take place:
CHAMBER
Two different proposals have been discussed in Congress. In the House, Bolsonarists defend a text that benefits Bolsonaro and those convicted of some kind of involvement with the acts of January 8.
Centrão party leaders, however, evaluate a proposal that does not overthrow Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. The strategy would allow another name on the right to be the candidate for president in 2026.
There is not yet a law proposal formally presented in the House. PL leader Sostenes Cavalcante (RJ) announced on September 4, 2025 one that he and other scholars want to vote. The text grants forgiveness to all convicts, processed or investigated by January 8. The draft of this project has a very elastic period to grant the benefit: it establishes that forgiveness will be for all acts performed from March 14, 2019, the date of the beginning of the inquiry of fake news no STF.
The text also states that the granting of amnesty automatically eliminates the effects of criminal convictions, with the consequent filing of inquiries, investigations and ongoing processes. It also cancels fines, indemnities, precautionary and injunctions already imposed by the court. With this, in practice, it would be possible to reverse Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and allow the former president to dispute the 2026 elections.
The bill was criticized by deputies and politicians of various spheres because it is considered very comprehensive, and may even benefit criminal factions such as the CCP (First Command of the Capital) and the CV (Red Command).
The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), traveled to Brasilia on September 3 and pressed in favor of amnesty in the House. Boconists evaluate having enough votes. The mayor (Republicans-PB), however, resists. In his state, in Paraíba, all its main allies are next to Lula in the 2026 disputes. In Brasilia, Motta depends on support from the Anti-Lula Center to command the deputies.
On September 2, Motta said he was evaluating the issue and even told the Allies that he could guide the project in the house plenary. Only on Tuesday (9.Set), the deputy that the project “There is no forecast of either the agenda or rapporteur.” The statement was given after meeting with party leaders. The group’s decision was to leave the matter after the completion of the Bolsonaro judgment stage at the STF, which ended last week.
PT leader in the House, Lindbergh Farias (RJ), said on Wednesday (10.Set.2025) that put the bill in voting before the publication of the judgment with the result of the trial would be a “Brutal interference in a process” in course in the judiciary.
Although the pockets can convince Motta to put the project in voting next week, it is likely that only the emergency regime is taken. The merit would be analyzed at another time.
The week starting on September 22, Brasilia should reduce the pace. The President (PT) travels to New York (USA) to attend the UN General Assembly (United Nations). It will be in the United States for 4 days. Ministers will accompany him. It is possible that Motta and the president of the Senate, (União Brasil-AP), are also called to join the entourage.
Thus, in a very optimistic scenario, the amnesty project could be voted by the House in the last week of September. If the text is approved, it would follow for Senate analysis. It is still uncertain, however, if there will be agreement for such a vote.
SENATE
The advance of an amnesty to Bolsonaro also bumps into alcohumbre. The senator advocates at most a penalty reduction for those convicted of January 8, without including the leaders and financiers of the act. This measure would exclude the possibility of amnesty to Bolsonaro. In addition, it is possible that the Senate attends a possible text approved by the House.
If a bill approved by the deputies arrived in the Senate in early October, in an optimistic forecast for the pockets, the house could vote at any time, depending on agreement between party leaders.
In a very favorable scenario for those who defend the amnesty, the urgency for voting on the project in plenary could be voted on the 2nd week of October. The merit of the text, however, could be to the end of the month.
Thus, an amnesty proposal could be approved by the Senate in the 4th week of October. If senators accept the House proposal and there are no substantial changes (something very unlikely), the bill would go to the presidency, so that Lula would sanction or veto excerpts or the full text. If there are changes, the proposal would return to be reviewed again by the House.
Lula Analysis
The President of the Republic has up to 15 business days to sanction or veto a bill. If you do not do so on time, the text is considered sanctioned. Thus, if the Amnesty Bill eventually approved by Congress in late October, Lula would have until mid -November to decide. The president and close allies are reportedly contrary to the proposal.
The petista would certainly spend the entire deadline available to make a decision. In early November, the attention of the federal government and many congressmen will be focused on COP30 in Belém (PA). The event will be held from November 10 to 21, but the head of heads of state was anticipated and will be held on November 6 and 7, also in the capital of Pará.
When they consider the November’s weekends and holidays, the most likely – in this optimistic hypothesis for the pockets – is that Lula will veto the project around November 20. Then the ball returns to the legislature.
Congress analyzes veto
Every presidential veto should be analyzed by deputies and senators. Only there is no deadline for this to be done.
Congressmen can overthrow a stretch or all the content of a veto. This decision needs to be made in a joint session of the Congress, which is convened by the Senate President.
To reject a veto, the votes of the absolute majority of deputies are required. That is, at least 257 deputies and 41 senators. There is no definite periodicity for joint sessions. It depends on the will of party leaders and Senate President. The vetoes also need to be voted in the order in which they were sent to the legislature. It is possible through political agreements “Pierce the line.” Thus, it would be feasible to analyze the eventual veto to the amnesty at the end of November or early December, if I Alcolumbre a joint session of Congress. Normally, congressmen work only until the week before Christmas.
STF
If the probable presidential veto to the amnesty is overthrown, politicians on the left will resort to the STF immediately. As has happened on other occasions, a minister alone can make a decision and overthrow what the legislature approved. This is what happened in the case of the increase in IOF (Tax on Financial Operations): Minister Alexandre de Moraes annulled what deputies and senators had decided and Congress did not know how to react.
Since there are a majority of ministers against amnesty for those convicted by January 8, it is likely that a monocratic decision will be made if the congress overthrow a veto of Lula. In this case, no one would benefit until the Supreme Plenary analyzed the case.
The court recesses in the middle of December and returns only in February 2026.
All dates and deadlines in this text are assumptions that assume a positive scenario for the pockets. But as it is observed, the amnesty does not fit within the 2025 calendar.
And the outcome at this moment must be negative when the final word of the Supreme comes. The court tends to decide on the overthrow of the amnesty, especially Bolsonaro’s.
During the trial of the action for attempted coup, ministers Alexandre de Moraes, Flávio Dino and Gilmar Mendes signaled that they will not accept amnesty actions related to the case. Dino said on Tuesday (9.Set) that there is no amnesty to the attempted coup d’état for being an attack on democracy. “We have already had a lot of amnesties in Brazil. Right or not, we are not a court of history, we are a court of positive law of existing concrete facts. But it is certain that there has never been amnesty for the benefit of the dominant power.”he said in his vote.
The ministers’ speeches were interpreted as scraps for Congress that any attempt to nullify the punishments to those involved on January 8 will be rejected by the Supreme Court.
In the event that the Supreme Court decides against the amnesty, the pockets could appeal through infringing embargoes or declaration, nor have the deadline to be analyzed and hardly reverse a decision of the Court.
All considered, it is extremely unlikely to enable amnesty to Bolsonaro in 2025. In the best scenario for the former president, the case could be resolved in the 1st semester of 2026-but with an failure bias, as the final word will be again from the STF.
