There are many pressures that Putin receives to end the war. But he doesn’t look ready for the next day. It is due to his political survival.
The Drones mission to Poland was a message. Putin does not intend to end his war against the West soon. The Russian invasion of NATO airspace follows weeks of air attacks in Ukraine.
The blows brought the deaths of many civilians, while destroying buildings that house EU and Britain’s delegations. Putin seems to be far from any peace agreement with Ukraine.
Despite his pressure, Putin has linked his political survival with a simmering conflict with the US and their allies. “Putin is the president of the war”said Nikolai Petros, a senior analyst at the New Eurasian Strategies Center based in London.
Having shaped himself as a leader in times of war, his return to president in peace of peace would be equivalent to relegation. “Regardless of conditions, he cannot abandon this role. “said Petros.
Conflict ending is risked to Putin
As the attack on Ukraine is approaching its fourth year, the Russian president may be more optimistic. Maybe more than when the Kremlin was hoping to understand the country in a few days.
Ukrainian forces are weak due to lack of weapons and human resources, and Russia is moving on the front.
However, Moscow’s progress is slow and costs expensive. The Kremlin’s Armed Forces have great losses and the conflict has burdened the Russian economy, which is in danger of being a recession. However, from a political point of view, the end of the conflict poses risks.
Strict control of the Kremlin on the media and the internet would probably allow him to present a peace agreement to most Russians as a victory. But it is not what will concern the Russian president.
“With Russia’s liberal opposition being decimated, a small but powerful group of nationalists is now the biggest threat to his power,” Petrov said. They have promised them a grand victory, not only over Ukraine, but also on what the Kremlin calls “the collective western world”.
“There is a desire among the hard -core military -political establishment to destroy NATO,” said Alexander Bunov, a former Russian diplomat and now a senior researcher at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, at the Russian DW Service. “To show that NATO is useless.”
The rhetoric against Finland reminiscent of Ukraine
Since Putin’s meeting with Trump in Alaska last month, which the US president had described as a summit dedicated to the achievement of a truce, Moscow has intensified a hybrid war campaign against Europe, according to military analysts.
Prior to Wednesday’s invasion, Russian drones had repeatedly entered the Polish airspace from neighboring Belarus. In August, a Russian drone crashed about 100 kilometers southwest of Warsaw.
five of the drones that invaded Poland followed a straight path to a NATO base. They would arrive there if the Dutch fighter Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter aircraft intercede.
Two days before the drones invasion, Dmitry Medvedev ,. In fact, he threatened that any attack “could lead to the collapse of the Finnish state – once and for all.”
Analysts noted that the rhetoric of the article looked like the Kremlin’s arguments before Russia’s complete invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Moscow has also begun to transport vital branches, such as shipbuilding, to the east of the country, away from the NATO border, as Petrolos pointed out. On Friday, Russia began to conduct large -scale military exercises with Belarus. Among other things they take place just opposite the Polish border. Exercises are expected to be completed on Tuesday.
“Whatever Putin succeeds in Ukraine, the confrontation with the West will not end there, but will continue in various forms,” Petrov said. “Including the military”.
Putin’s messages
With actions such as the invasion of Poland, Putin sends a warning message to Trump and European leaders. This was pointed out by Kiril Rogov, founder of Think Tank Re: Russia.
“Putin has shown that he can attack NATO countries today and that they do not have defense systems,” he said. Trump’s contradictory statements about his commitment to NATO and his reluctance to keep his own deadlines for imposing sanctions on Moscow give Putin the confidence that he can save it. For the Russian president, “it is now or never,” Baunov added.
Introductions like this in Poland are aimed at undermine NATO’s commitment to collective defense. With such small attacks they test NATO’s willingness to respond.
Hope, Baunov said, is to reveal the military alliance as useless. So far, Washington’s reaction has fueled these fears. On Thursday, Trump reiterated Moscow’s arguments, telling reporters that “it could be wrong”.
The Kremlin rejected the accusations that drones were a deliberate challenge. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that “there were no plans to target facilities” in Poland.
Belarus said the invasion could have been the result of an accident due to “electronic interference”. “This is typical of Putin to challenge and test the boundaries,” Rogov said. “He likes to leave things doubtful so that they can be interpreted either as intentionally or as accidental.”
