The dollar closed again on the smallest level in more than a year on Monday (15), when ending the trading session at $ 5,322. Throughout the day, he even played the $ 5.30.
The border accumulates in the year loss of 14% against the real and, according to Cristiano Oliveira, director of macroeconomic research at Banco Pine, is the only non -European currency among the nine best performance in 2025.
The scenario is quite different from that observed at the beginning of the year, when the American border was traded over $ 6, in the wake of the last months of 2024.
The movement reflects domestic factors, but is due above all to external factors. See what analysts say by CNN.
Eye on interest
Since the E, in July, the Real has appreciated “a more favorable external environment, marked by weak dollar globally, and from the prospects for resuming the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Cycle, which would expand the interest of interest in Brazil,” according to Itaú BBA Macroeconomics report.
Cristiano Oliveira considers that “the weakness of the dollar global explains approximately half of this appreciation. The other half is associated with local fundamentals, such as gains in terms of exchange, interest rate differential and the reduction of the country risk prize.”
In recent weeks, they have strengthened the thesis that the Federal Reserve, the US Central Bank, after maintaining them between 4.25% and 4.5% – historically high for the country – for the past nine months.
The tool, which compiles market expectations, indicates that about 96% of investors bet on a 0.25 percentage point in Fed interest. The other 4% see an even wider reduction of 0.5 points. The tool indicates null Chance of Maintenance.
“For the dollar, the short -term interest setting scenario may have a weight, depending on the action and the Guidance made by the Fed, and can a little more weaken the dollar global, while a surprise or a harder tone can reverse the dollar depreciation scenario,” says Nickolas Lobo, an investment expert at Nomad.
With lower interest rates in the US, it is more favorable for foreign investor to take “cheaper” money out there and allocate here in titles that can make it yield more. This is the call.
“The dollar movement in relation to the real depends strongly on international capital flow. In general, lower interest rates in the US reduce the attractiveness of US assets and encourage investors to seek better returns from emerging countries such as Brazil,” explains Otávio Oliveira, Banco Daycoval treasury manager.
“This movement increases the entry of dollars in the country, expands the offer of currency and, consequently, tends to value the real. Thus, the dollar quotation can retreat in September if the cut is confirmed and well received by the market,” he concludes.
The BC has already signaled that the country’s interest must remain in a restrictive level by one, which makes the carry trade Even more favorable, according to João Soares, founding partner of Rio Negro Investimentos.
Uncertainties
Donald Trump’s tariff also played against the price of his own dollar, which has been undervaluation around the world over the past few months, said Otávio Oliveira. “That is, the dollar itself has been losing some value regardless of domestic factors in Brazil,” says the daycoval manager.
For Banco Pine Cristiano Oliveira, “the real must maintain the tendency to appreciate against the dollar in the coming months, supported by the” factors already discussed.
Tony Volpon, former director for BC’s international affairs and columnist CNN Moneyit evaluates that it is likely that the exchange rate follows a devaluation trend by pricing that the.
Otávio Oliveira points out, however, that internal issues – such as political tensions and tax dynamics – can limit the appreciation of the real.
“In addition, the international scenario carries difficult risks to predict, such as the recent commercial crisis between US and Brazil. Which can generate volatility,” concludes Daycoval.
