Skepticism from the very beginning
The fact that a large question mark hangs over the meeting of Putin and Greenland himself, several analysts pointed out what Donald Trump announced in August that it was starting to prepare for the Putin meeting with Greeny.
While some recalled that the head of the Kremlin does not consider Volodymyr Greenland to be the legitimate President of Ukraine, the other indicated that if the Russian army had on top of the first, Moscow will have no reason to hurry to conclude agreements. They also noticed how Trump’s words about the possible meeting of Putin and Greeny corrected the Kremlin – Putin’s advisor Yuri Ušakov claimed that during the negotiations with Trump they only discussed “the possibility of increasing the level of representatives of the Ukrainian and Russian side”.
The source from the Kremlin environment was then translated by the Russian website – as a “polite refusal” of the Greeny meeting. On the other hand, the Russian website also pointed to another source close to the management of a large Russian state -owned company, which in the negotiations saw a qualitative shift in the attitudes of the parties. “Now (the end of the war) is no longer as incredible as two months ago. It is only slightly incredible,” Verstska quoted her source.
The Ukrainian political commentator Vitaly Portnikov was skeptical about the negotiations as such. He recently noted for the Youtub channel that “no US president has effective pressure tools for the Russian President”. “There is no magic stick. If it was possible to stop the war, it would be stopped by Joseph Biden, who had a more positive relationship with Ukraine than Donald Trump,” he said.
A prologue to the next war?
The analyst of Tatiana Stanovaj after the Summit at Alaska and Washington also pointed out that the meetings brought new hopes – for the first time in a few years the party began to discuss the practical levels of leveling – but added that long -term prospects of negotiations did not actually change. “Participants can rightly claim certain tactical achievements, but only more losses await strategically,” she noted.
In her for Carnegie’s center, which is engaged in the research of Russia and Eurasia, it also mentioned the role of Europe in a negotiating format – which, according to the analyst, is “to a large extent decorative”.
“(Europe) has neither military nor financial resources to achieve a rapid change of the battlefield situation, and its key strategic ally – the United States – has now accepted a Russian attitude that any agreement should be discussed in direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine,” she said.
According to her, Kiev could find himself in several months of demanding negotiations with Moscow, again in Istanbul, in the middle of the ongoing Russian offensive.
“After a few months of negotiations, they may come to the result in the form of a sort of settlement formula. However, it will most likely be sentenced to repetition of the fate of previous agreements between Moscow and Kiev, such as Minsk Agreements: Instead of aligning the conflict once and for all, it can serve as a prologue for further war.”
The end of the war in a few months?
that in the case of a war between Russia and Ukraine, it is not necessary to expect a peaceful settlement of the fighting parties to claim in a few months.
For example, American political scientist Samuel Charap pointed out that, from the point of view of statistics, wars that last longer than a year usually do not end in ten years.
Finally, even the former chief commander of the Ukrainian army and today Ambassador in London Valerij Zalužnyj in an interview for the web said that the war could last for many years. “If Ukraine does not change its defense strategy and approaches to the mobilization of resources, the war can last until 2034,” says the general.
Nevertheless, possible “deadlines” appear on the ether, when the fighting could be stopped.
One of them came out of the American Finance Minister Scott Bessent, who said in an interview for agencies and Bloomberg that if Europe “introduces considerable secondary duties on Russian oil buyers”, the war in Ukraine could end “60 or 90 days”.
Some Ukrainian politicians, specifically the deputy of the government party, the servant of the People Fedir Venislavsky, are also juggled with terms. He said for television on Wednesday that the war “will certainly not last years”.
“I think (will last) a maximum of a few months. Let’s say this: By the end of the year there are real chances to stop all this,” he said. The deputy, among the causes of stopping the fighting, ranked, for example, that “military activities got into the operating blind alley and neither party can achieve strategic or tactical achievements” or “the situation in the Russian economy approaching the disaster”.
Fights or hint do not quiet
On the other hand, the Ukrainian president recently told Sky News that the Russians are planning “two more demanding offensive campaigns”.
“Their last three campaigns did not go out. And I think it’s an important signal. First, what I told Europeans and in the White House, the Russians will not be able to get (Ukrainian) east.
The Russians are currently putting pressure mainly in the east of Ukraine in the Donetsk region and the Kharkov region.
They managed to move, for example, near the town of Kupjansk, which liberated the Ukrainian forces in autumn 2022. The Russians used the logistics even empty gas pipeline. The Ukrainian forces, however, most recently that the pipeline that led under the river Oskil and through which the Russians managed to penetrate to Kupjansko.
A spokesman for the 11th Dmytro Zapinožec army for recently pointed out that the Russians gathering forces in the occupied Lyssiansk and the Ukrainian army expects that they could attack during the autumn campaign near Siversk near Aglomeration Kramatorsk-Sloviansk, which is an important defensive wall.
However, the situation is also very tense in the Dypropetrov region, where at the beginning of the week in 18 villages forced evacuation of families with children.
