New round of Genial/Quaest research released on Thursday (18) shows that the president () maintains distance from opponents and would continue to win in all the second round scenarios of the 2026 presidential.
The survey indicates supporting the improvement in the popularity of petista management. In recent months, the government has been gathering fruits in the discourse of defense of national sovereignty and the Bolsonaro family association with the crisis opened by Donald Trump’s tariff.
The values for the second round, already favorable to Lula since August, have varied within the boundaries of the margin of error, two percentage points, regarding the last round of the survey. The Institute interviewed 2,004 Brazilians between September 12 and 14.
The petista has 43% of voting intentions against (Republicans), which accumulates 35% of the mentions. () It has 33% against 40% of the president. The governor of Santa Catarina ,. (), accumulates 32%, compared to 44% of Lula, and the miner (new) reaches 32% compared to 45% of the petista.
Against the 31% of the governor of Goiás, (), Lula points out 46%. The Southern (PSD) reaches 26%, compared to 45% of the agent.
The former president (), declared ineligible by the (Superior Electoral Court) and convicted in the (Supreme Court) by the 2022 coup plot, reaches 34% of voting intentions in a possible second round with Lula, which in this case would win the dispute with 47%.
(PL), son of the former president, reaches 29%, against 47% of the petista. The former first lady (PL) goes to 32%, compared to 47% of Lula.
The government was beginning of 2025 crossed by popularity crises, such as the taxation of the PIX and the improper discounts of the INSS (National Institute of Social Security).
Most voters believe that Lula should not apply for reelection: 59% have this position, against 39% who argue that he disputes. The value varies within the margin of error since July.
Among those who believe that the petista should indicate a successor, 9% point out the vice-president (PSD), 6% the Minister of Planning and Budget, (), 5% the Minister of Finance (PT), 3% the mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes (PSD), 2% the Minister of Education (PT), 1% former Minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) and 1% to the head of the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffman (PT).
Support for a possible Bolsonaro candidacy fell. The survey, made after the former president is sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison for leading an attempted coup, shows that 76% of Brazilians think he should give up the race and support another candidate.
In August, before the STF conviction, there were 65% those who thought that way. In the same period, 26% thought Bolsonaro should keep their candidacy, and now there are 19%.
Between pockets, those who think the president best supports another candidate rose from 31% to 46%. Those who believe Bolsonaro should go in the dispute fell from 66% to 52%.
For those who declare themselves from the right, but are not pockets, there are 74% those who support other applications, against 53% in August, and 26% who still believe in the chances of Bolsonaro, compared to 44% previously. This group has Tarcisio, also supported by Centrão politicians, as a favorite for replacing the leader, with 34% of the mentions.
Half of those who have no political position claim to be afraid of Bolsonaro returning to power, and 29% feel the same way about Lula. Still inside since group, the return of either causes 14% fear, and 3% say they have no feeling in any scenario.
In voting intentions for president in the first round, Lula has: 32% against 24% of Bolsonaro; 33% against 18% Michelle; 35% against 17% of Tarcisio; and 32% against 14% of Eduardo Bolsonaro. In these four scenarios, the name of Ciro Gomes was tested, and the former governor of Ceará obtained, respectively, 11%, 13%, 13%and 14%.
In a scenario with Tarcisio and without Ciro, the governor of accumulates 20%, against 40% of Lula and 16% of Eduardo Bolsonaro. The son and former minister of Bolsonaro waged disputes veiled by the Bolsonist estate with the eventual departure of the former president of the political scene.
Eduardo points out 21%in the first -round scenarios without Tarcisio, in which he is tested against right -wing governors Junior (16%), Zema (13%) and Caiado (12%). Lula would occupy the other vacancy in the second round with at least 40% of voting intentions in the three hypotheses.
Eduardo is appointed as the Brazilian leadership with greater rejection, accumulating the dislike of 68% of voters. He is in the US articulating sanctions on Brazilian economy and authorities with US leaders to press the country to amnesty his father. The parliamentarian is followed by Jair Bolsonaro (64%), Michelle (61%) and Ciro Gomes (60%) in rejection rates.
See the margins of error by sociodemographic group of Genial Research/Quaest:
- Sex: female (3), male (3)
- Age: 16 to 34 years (4), 35 to 59 years (3), 60 years or older (5)
- Schooling: Up to elementary (4), complete medium (3), complete superior (4)
- Religion: Catholics (3), evangelicals (4)
- Race: white (3), black (7), brown (3)
- Region: Southeast (3), Northeast (4), South (6), Midwest/North (8)
- Political position: Lulista/Petista (5), is not Lulista/Petista but more on the left (6), has no positioning (4), is not a pocketist but more right (5), pockets (6)
