“The most disadvantageous peace is better than the fairer war.” Rotterdam’s famous Erasmus was read this summer near his grave, in the Basel Cathedral (Switzerland), framing a Mapamundi in flames. Beyond the hyperbole, the truth is that the world burns. The certainties and the situation when They set After the and forgotten commitments to the “Never Again”, the planet faces a moment of unknown violence since 1945. The auguries are not good for the future either.
Israel’s offensive against Gaza and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia monopolize most of the headlines when wars are spoken, but in total there are up to 59 armed conflicts open in the world ,. This Sunday, September 21, the International Day of Peace and United Nations is commemorated has opted for the motto for its actions, precisely to emphasize the fact that “it is essential that we all undertake concrete actions to mobilize in favor of peace.”
“All people have a role to play, from the peacekeeping forces in the front line to community members and students in classrooms around the world. We must raise the voice against violence, hate, discrimination and inequality, practice respect and embrace the diversity of our world,” defends the UN.
It is a laudable call. Another thing is that Naïf sounds on stage where we are. Let’s go back to Indexknown last June. The report – which you can read complete at the end of this article – reveals a continuous decline of global peace, with many key indicators that precede great conflicts at higher levels than at any other time since World War II. The increase in conflict deaths, the acceleration of geopolitical tensions and the assertiveness of the intermediate powers are promoting what they call, a fundamental restructuring of the global order that “marks the emergence of a new geopolitical era”, not more calmly, of course.
“In combination with the competition between great powers, asymmetric war technologies and the increase in debt in fragile economies, the probability of new conflicts is high,” the experts sign.
“In combination with the competition between great powers, asymmetric war technologies and the increase in debt in fragile economies, the probability of new conflicts is high”
According to the document, world peace has deteriorated every year since 2014, with those 59 active state conflicts, never seen since the second great war, and 152,000 people have died from conflicts recorded in last year, 2024. Conflicts are increasingly international, also, with 78 nations involved, he adds. They are the worst data for peace registered by this reference report since it began to be prepared, in 2007.
The Mena region (North Africa and) is the least peaceful in the world, especially Sudan, Yemen, Syria and Israel, while sub -Saharan Africa is the region with the most conflict countries, with 35 of 43 nations involved in one in the last five years.
World peace has deteriorated without stopping since 2014, in an escalation that has not had a truce, and in the last decade the situation has deteriorated in 100 countries. In 2024, there were 17 countries with more than 1,000 deaths from internal conflicts, the highest figure since 1999.
A “turning point”
That world that we have just reviewed, conflict conflict, is found in a “turning point”, in which “global influence and power are fragmenting.” It is demonstrated by the fact that the number of countries with global influence has almost tripled since the end of the Cold War, increasing from 13 to 34 in 2023. “This is due to the boom of medium level powers, competition between great powers and unsustainable levels of debt in the most fragile countries in the world. This is leading to a fundamental realignment and a possible turning point towards a new international order,” is explained.
Another common denominator stands out: that conflicts are becoming more and more internationalized: in 2024, 78 countries were involved in conflicts beyond their borders. We are no longer only before civil wars or with the neighbor, for resources, territory, religion or past glory, but that regional alliances and defensive blocks lead to, if a conflict begins, soon becomes more than national or neighborhood, regional or almost worldwide.
The danger is clear, for example, in cases like the Ukrainian, after last week, NATO had that, about twenty, of incursion into the airspace of a partner, Poland.
There are more wars and its economic impact, of course, it also shoots: it reached 19.97 billion dollars in 2024, equivalent to 11.6% of world GDP, and only military spending represented 2.7 billion dollars. Conflicts are increasingly expensive, due to the sophistication of weapons, and also more difficult to win.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, India, United Arab Emirates, Israel, South Africa, Brazil and Indonesia have become influential regional powers. South America was the only region that improved in peace, being Peru the State that registered the greatest improvement, driven by the reduction of civil disturbances. Today, the five most peaceful countries on the planet are, in this order, Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, Austria and Switzerland. At the opposite end are Bangladesh, Ukraine, Russia, Congo, Myanmar, with Palestine entering an unprecedented degradation.
To teeth
The upward conflicts have led to the world, in parallel, to an arms race that for now has no brake. The International Institute of Peace Studies of Stockholm (SIPRI) publishes the head of the header to understand the world of the defense industry and that world military spending reached 2,718 billion dollars in 2024, an increase of 9.4% compared to the previous year, the largest annual increase since the end of the cold war. Of record.
“More than 100 countries worldwide increased their military expenditure by 2024. As governments increasingly prioritize military security, often to the detriment of other budget items, economic and social consequences could have a significant impact on societies during the coming years,” said Xiao Liang, a researcher of the military spending program and SIPRI armament production, when making their conclusions known, last April.
Its analysts also indicate that world nuclear arsenals are being modernized and expanding, pointing out the beginning of a “new dangerous nuclear arms race” due to weakening weapons controls. The general rearme process is accelerating, with a growing importance of artificial intelligence and cyber threats in the field of security.
“The open veins are still bleeding, but they also beat, dream and resist,” wrote the Uruguayan Eduardo Galeano in the work that we have stolen for the headline. But today’s world has lost life to Burbotones. You need an urgent transfusion. Also for what will come while peace, that to which this beautiful day is dedicated, is not as profitable as war.
