The Paris Agreement – the great climate pact – turns 10. The advance of renewables and electric mobility is the best news of this decade. But the speed at which they move to fossil fuels, is not enough to fulfill the objective of the Paris Agreement: that the heating is within the security limits marked by science. Governments continue to priming with public aid the extraction of oil, gas and coal and, according to a report, the production planned for the next few years is much greater than what is needed for heating is between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre -industrial levels, the main goal of Paris.
This report is presented coinciding with the start of the so -called New York Climate Week, which is held within the framework of the United Nations General Assembly. The UN Secretary General, has summoned for Wednesday a climatic summit in which around 110 countries will intervene, although only about 40 will be represented at the highest level by their heads of state. The United Nations had asked the almost 200 signatories of the Paris Agreement who at this time had their new climatic plans with measures and objectives from here to 2035. In Wednesday’s appointment these plans should be announced, those known as NDC (the acronym in English of contribution determined at the national level). Basically, it is the promises of greenhouse gases cut in each country.
China is expected to present its new plan this week at the meeting in New York, although it is unknown how concrete and ambitious will be, as indicated by a UN official involved in the organization of this appointment. On the other hand, the internal division linked to the progress of the ultras formations has made, and will only go with a “declaration of intentions”, which remains credibility. The role of China and the EU in the climatic struggle is basic at the worst moment of multilateralism in decades and with the United States government installed in directly denialist positions of climate change.
To achieve the emission cuts that countries promise in their plans, it is essential to move away from fossil fuels, and a decade after signing Paris, the signs sent by governments are not yet robust enough. According to him, prepared by the Stockholm Institute of Environment, Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, the path is not adequate. By 2030, countries now project fossil fuel production of more than double (120%) of what is compatible with leaving heating in 1.5 degrees, and 77% above the path of 2 degrees.
To reach this conclusion, the study authors have analyzed the production plans of the countries for the coming years and have calculated the greenhouse emissions that will generate when that oil, gas and coal are burned to produce energy. Then they have compared it with the emission reduction trajectories that are required to meet the goal of 1.5 and 2 degrees.
The previous edition of, and experts warn that the gap between what is needed and production forecasts has enlarged. That is, producing countries now plan to extract more combustible in 2030 than two years ago. Precisely at the Climate Summit of that 2023, the COP28 held in Dubai, the 200 signatories of the Paris Agreement committed themselves.
“In 2023, governments formally recognized the need to move away from fossil fuels to mitigate climate change, an obligation that,” says Derik Breekhoff, coordinator of the report presented this Monday. “But as our report makes clear, although many countries have committed themselves to a transition to clean energy, many others seem to be trapped in the use of a regulation dependent on fossil fuels, planning even more production than two years ago,” he adds.
The trajectory that marks the forecasts of the countries here to 2050 points to a drop in coal extraction, but an increase in the case of oil and gas. “The projected total production of fossil fuels in 2050 remains more than 4.5 times higher than the levels consistent with limiting the heating to 1.5 degrees, and 2.5 times higher than the levels consistent with a limit of 2 degrees.” The authors warn. These plans not only “undermine” the “commitments of the Paris Agreement of the countries”, but “go against the expectations that, under current policies, world demand for coal, oil and gas”.
The writing study in particular the plans of 20 of the largest fossil fuel producers on the planet, which together accumulate 80% of all oil, coal and gas extracted in the world. They are China (the first coal producer), the United States (the first in oil and gas), Russia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, India, Australia, Canada, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, South Africa, Norway, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Colombia, Nigeria, the United Kingdom and Germany. “17 of the 20 outstanding countries still plan to increase the production of at least one fossil fuel up to 2030,” the report points out.
Although there are also some positive data: “six of the 20 countries are now developing a national production of fossil fuels aligned with the national and world objectives of zero net emissions, compared to the four of 2023 ″. But, in any case, the authors point to the root of the problem:“ All the analyzed countries continue to provide financial and political support for the production of fossil fuels. ” public aid and fiscal measures that continue to priming this industry that overheats the planet.
Summit in New York
Each signatory of the Paris Agreement must periodically prepare its NDC with the planned reductions of the emissions. This 2025 must present the plans that set the goals until 2035. The date established in the pact itself was February of this year, but practically no one complied. The United Nations offered a new date: end of September, coinciding with the summit organized by Guterres. Some 40 countries have already presented their NDC and another good number is expected to do this this week, including China, the first world gase sender. “The devil are in the details,” he says about the uncertainty about the Chinese NDC a senior UN official, who affirms that President Xi Jinping is expected to participate in Wednesday’s act.
May China carry a plan is the good news. But there are several other negatives that overshadow the panorama. For example, that the EU can only be presented with a declaration of intentions by internal division and the brake on community climate policies promoted from historically committed countries, such as France and Germany.
Europe, in any case, hopes to have its NDC ready before the UN annual climate summit that will be held in November in Belém, COP30. At the moment, they have only been able to close a declaration of intentions in which they say that their plan could be a cut of emissions in 2035 between 66.3% and 72.5% compared to 1990 levels.
“It is essential that Europe aim at the top of the range,” says Simon Stiell, general secretary of the UN climate change area. “If these objectives are fulfilled already a large scale, the EU has a lot to win. Not only will it be a world leader in climate change and clean energy; the more measures adopts, the more the continent will benefit, with a further economic growth,” adds Stiell.
In the UN they consider “logical” that the EU, like many other countries, takes its time and points to the complicated negotiation system that is followed to try to close its NDC. “Europe has been a leader for decades and it is not the time for the EU to give up,” says a senior United Nations official, who remembers how Europe cannot flee from the consequences of this crisis, and before the floods in the center of the continent.
“Repeated delays and lack of clarity around the NDCs of the EU and China by 2035 are a deep disappointment,” says Steffen Menzel, of the group of experts in E3G climatic diplomacy. In addition, it is not expected that India, which is already the third largest issuer after China and the USA, participate in the Guterres Wednesday and nothing is known about its broadcasting program. Nor from Indonesia, another of emerging nations that has more and more weight in global emissions.
But the great absence, not only of the Guterres Summit but of everything that has to do with the fight against climate change, is that of the United States. The return of Donald Trump has meant that his country leaves the Paris Agreement – something that will legally be consummated at the end of this year – and, internally, a boycott from clean energy and electric mobility.
“This transition is inevitable and irreversible,” they contrast from the United Nations about the progress of renewables and the electric car that is currently leading China.
Good news for the sea
Not only climate change will be discussed in New York this week. It is also planned that, taking advantage of the UN General Assembly, on Tuesday an act on the protection of the ocean is held. Two years ago, within the UN it was adopted, that among other things the foundations for the creation of marine areas protected in international waters and opens the door to safeguard these areas that in many ways are a territory without law.
Although it was adopted in June 2023, to enter into force, 60 countries are needed. And that figure. According to the text itself, after the six tens of ratifications will be achieved in force within 120 days, that is, on January 17. . The latter have been Sri Lanka, San Vicente and Las Grenadinas, Sierra Leone and Morocco.
The entry into force comes at a complicated moment for multilateralism due to the advance of ultras populisms. Especially, in the US, where Donald Trump has already given signs of wanting to exploit the resources of these international waters without waiting for possible damage that can be caused to the common heritage. Trump tries to promote, something that has already aroused the rejection of many states.
