For a few weeks, with different incursions both drones and combat planes in the airspace from various countries of the Atlantic Alliance.
It all started on September 10, when Almost twenty drones flew over Poland. Three days later, on September 13, Another drone entered Romania’s airspace. In addition, last Friday, NATO reported that Three Russian mig-31 fighters About the Baltic Sea.
And more recently, on Monday, the Danish authorities were forced to, the largest in the country, due to the Drones detection in the area.
Given this situation, the British media has published an article in which Analyze the risk of an escalation between Russia and NATO After the recent incursions into European skies.
David Jordanof the Freeman Air and Space Institute of the King’s College in London, has indicated that Russia’s main objective causing this type of incidents is “Take some NATO countries to refuse to participate in the support of Ukraine Somehow, insinuating that this could lead to a broader war. “
The debate in NATO’s bosom is currently in itself It should be demolished or not Russian combat airplanes if new incursions occur. In that sense, from The Guardian They express that “some analysts argue that, far from aggravating the conflict, It is more likely that a measure of this type drives Russia to back. “
In any case, David Jordan highlights that The first step of any escalation Additional between Russia and NATO would be to occur New Russian incursions. According to the expert, that scenario could occur “if the Russians think it can cause disorders or sow discord in NATO.”
“If NATO begins to tear down drones, Russia will almost certainly stop”
However, the expert has stressed that “If NATO countries begin to tear down drones as usual, then it is almost certain that they will stop.” And he added that it is very unlikely that drone raids alone cause a significant escalation.
As for these incursions to be carried out repeatedly with combat planes, Jordan indicates that “I suspect that Putin is not willing to risk that they demolish one of its tactical aircraftsince they are very valuable in Ukraine and would be humiliating. “
Beyond all these possible situations, for the specialist the most important thing so that an escalation does not take place is that “Putin cannot be sure that the United States will remain on the sidelines if a statement of article 5 is made (The one who points out that an attack against an NATO member country is considered an attack against all the countries of the Atlantic Alliance) “.
Jordan culminates that “I don’t rule it out at all, but I think We must not consider military confrontation as an inevitable end. “
