Brazil should grow 2.4% in 2025, says World Bank

The Brazilian economy is expected to grow 2.4% this year, above the average of the and Caribbean (2.3%). The projection is from which released on Tuesday (7) another edition of the economic report to the region. World Bank economists predict the following expansions for Gross Domestic Product (GDP – set of goods and services produced) Brazilian: 2025 – 2.4%; 2026 – 2.2%; and 2027 – 2.3%.

The projections are the same as the June report this year. Estimates are above both those of Brazilian, how much of the financial market here in the country. The BC monetary policy report, released on the 25th, points out 2% in 2025 and 1.5% next year. The Focus Bulletin, BC survey with financial institutions, released on Monday (6), foresees a high GDP of 2.16% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.

Last year, the Brazilian GDP expanded 3.4%. The Ministry of Finance has more optimistic projections, up 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, according to the September Macrophiscal Bulletin. The World Bank report does not bring specific justifications for the projection of all countries, only for the Latin America and Caribbean region as a whole.

Latin America and Caribbean

The World Bank is an international financial institution, made up of 189 countries. The institution is part of the United Nations System and is headquartered in the US capital, Washington. The multilateral bank has the role to grant loans to developing countries to finance infrastructure, health, education and other areas projects.

For the 29 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the World Bank foresees a growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% the following year. The 2025 estimate is the same as the June report. The 2026 is 0.1 percentage point above. In 2024, Latin America and the Caribbean grew 2.2%, the World Bank points out. By separating projections by countries, Guyana stands out, with 11.8% expansion This year and growth of over 20% in the following years: 22.4% in 2026 and 24% in 2027. The explanation is in the powerful oil sector.

Guyana recently plunged into oil exploration on the equatorial margin, a geographical region near the Ecuador line, also desired by Petrobras. After Guyana, the highest expected growth is from Argentina, 4.6% in 2025 and 4% next year. Despite the highlight, the projection is a retreat compared to the June report (5.5% in 2025, 4.5% in 2026).

“Argentina continues to have a remarkable economic recovery after two consecutive years of contraction, although deep challenges still persist,” the economists say. The worst numbers are from Bolivia, scheduled for three years of drop in GDP, being -0.5% this year, -1.1% in 2026 and -1.5% in 2027.

Reasons for the region

According to the World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean have a slower pace among global regions. Among the explanations, the institution’s experts point out external and internal issues. In the external are the slowdown of the global economy and drop in commodity price (raw materials marketed on a large scale and international prices). Countries like Brazil, Chile, Venezuela and Bolivia are major commodities exporters.

In the internal scenario, economists point to monetary policy (fighting inflation), which acts as a brake on the economy. Other points cited are low level of investment, “both public and private”, and “persistent lack of tax space”, ie governments with limitation of public spending.

“These challenges only reinforce the relevance of the growth agenda aimed at growth that are needed in the areas of infrastructure, education, regulation, competition and tax policy,” the World Bank points out.

“Facing these issues requires profound reforms, including: improving educational systems at all levels, strengthening the quality of universities and research institutes, as well as strengthening their bonds with the private sector; and deepening capital markets and facilitating risk management inherent in innovation and entrepreneurship processes,” the report.

*With information from Agência Brasil