(Bloomberg) – When Brazil was appointed host of the COP30 climate dome two years ago, this was seen as the perfect celebration of the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, where nations pledged to maintain climate change within safe limits.
In a month, nearly 200 countries will meet at the gates of the Amazon rainforest for a new round of climate negotiations sponsored by the United Nations. But there is still intense discussion about what should be the main result.
Unlike the two previous editions, COP30 (officially, the 30th Conference of the Parties) does not have a great outstanding result. At COP29, in Azerbaijan last year, countries had to agree with a new global climate financing target. The previous year, negotiators took stock of climate progress and agreed for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels.
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Brazil said it wants to go from negotiation to the implementation of goals. However, this is far from simple at a time when the US is retreating from the Paris Agreement, there are wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the world is less focused on climate action.
Success or failure will be the defining climate legacy of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
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Here are some of the results that negotiators wait in the Brazilian city of Belém next month:
NDC 3.0
Probably the biggest result of COP30 happens even before the summit. Countries were forced to present their third round of climatic commitments under Paris Agreement – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – by the end of last month. These commitments detail how they plan to reduce emissions by 2035 and the policies they will use for it.
More than half of the parts of the Paris Agreement, including China, have already sent their new NDCs. However, many great broadcasters have not yet done so. The European Union, the most ambitious region in climate, lost the deadline, as well as India. The US sent their promise early under the Biden administration, but President Donald Trump has canceled many of the policies necessary to fulfill it.
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By the end of this month, the UN will sum up all these emissions cutting promises and compile a report synthesis showing how far the world is from Paris’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 ° C. Few expects the UN global warming projection to be well below 2.5 ° C, which means countries are still very out of the way.
Attention to the gap
Talk to veteran diplomats of the climate and they will say this summit resembles COP26 in Glasgow, UK – the last time the countries were forced to present climatic commitments after a pandemic delay. This COP also did not have a mandated main result, but still delivered a historical commitment to “reduce” the burning of unmistakable coal, along with a series of parallel agreements ranging from fighting deforestation to the launch of an alliance of climate -committed banks.
As Brazil will respond to this year’s NDC synthesis will be the main thermometer of success. Ambitious countries, such as EU, want to directly approach the closure of the temperature gap to 1.5 ° C and solidify even more existing commitments, such as the transition away from fossil fuels. But traditional blockers of more climate action, such as Saudi Arabia, can see the current geopolitical environment as an opportunity to retreat in some of these promises.
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“What is missing is political will,” said Tina Stege, a climate of the Marshall Islands. “We need mitigation commitments to be delivered.”
After months of resistance, Brazil begins to accept the idea of negotiating a so -called cover decision to address the temperature gap, according to people familiar with the subject. But there is still little clarity about what will be included.
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Financial script
Last year, developed countries promised to deliver $ 300 billion in climate financing to developing nations and small island states by 2035. They also agreed to expand this by another trillion dollars through private sources, but left vague how that would be achieved.
Some of these answers must be revealed in COP30. Brazil and the presidency of Azerbaijan COP last year are working on a “Baku to Belém” script that activists expect to provide concrete proposals to mobilize significant amounts of money needed to help poor countries transition to clean energy and protect their economies from climate change.
Some possible options that have been suggested include so -called solidarity taxes on stock and title negotiations, fossil fuel emissions and first -class airfare. However, many of these points would need to be agreed outside the COP process. Multilateral banks are seen as a key role, but many now have to deal with a hostile trump administration to climate change.
The script will not be negotiated either, so it is unclear as far as you can go. What is certain is that developing countries will seek more than empty words.
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The slow pace of progress in reducing emissions makes more attention to how countries, companies and communities will adapt to climate change. For those on the front line of extreme climate events, the adaptation will be the main focus of this year’s summit.
Negotiators are unlikely to agree with a new financial goal dedicated to adaptation, but will need to reduce a list of indicators that accompany resilience to climate change from 400 to about 100 by the end of COP30.
Parallel agreements
The latest COP domes brought numerous statements and flashy initiatives. Critics say they serve as a useful distraction from slow progress in negotiating rooms, and are often ignored as soon as everyone leaves. But they can also bring new innovative ideas and mobilize countries coalitions to work together on issues such as expanding renewable energy or improving agricultural techniques.
This year will probably be no different. One of the main proposals is the $ 125 billion tropical FORESTS FORREVER FACILITY, which will use capital markets to pay countries to keep their forests standing. Another important parallel agreement to observe is a global carbon market coalition. This could bring together various countries to align how they put price on carbon.
Brazil also made the principle of “fair transition” a key pillar of COP30, to ensure that poor countries and communities do not stay behind during the move to a clean economy.
Keeping multilateralism alive
Ultimately, one of COP30’s top success indicators may be to prove that the diplomatic show is still underway after the US, the world’s largest economy and CO2’s largest historical issuer, to abandon the process.
Harjeet Singh, ancient COP participant and founding director of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, said a “headlight” came earlier this year, when the International Court said countries have the responsibility to do what they can to limit global warming to the critical limit of 1.5 ° C.
Even so, he said, geopolitics launches a “ominous shadow” about the perspectives of significant multilateralism. “It will be a long and arduous struggle,” said Singh, “to protect our planet and its people against the forces of inertia and self -interest.”
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